Planting chain: under the background of tight supply and demand, we are optimistic about corn, soybean (soybean meal), wheat and sugar next year. Benefiting from the promotion of food security and seed industry, genetically modified corn may be the first to land in 2022, and the corn seed industry is expected to usher in strong capacity expansion.
Pig breeding: the short-term production capacity shows a trend of de industrialization. In the first half of next year, the pig price may hit the bottom twice, and the market value of listed pig enterprises has fallen to the historical bottom, so as to grasp the investment opportunities on the left side of the plate; The long-term benefits are concentrated on a large scale, and there are still overtaking opportunities for the capacity expansion of listed pig enterprises.
Meat and poultry: the upstream supply pressure of white chicken is still large, the industrial chain is in deep loss or forced to reduce the upstream production capacity, pay attention to the production capacity adjustment rhythm of chicken farms, the long-term industrial chain extension is expected to bring valuation remodeling, and pay attention to the integration leader; The upstream production capacity of yellow chicken has shrunk significantly, and it is expected to continue to pick up in 2022, so as to grasp the growth dividend of chilled products for a long time.
Vaccine: the short-term pig price has dragged down the prosperity of the industry, and the investment value of the sector has been realized; The long-term benefit of large-scale breeding drives the increase of market seedling penetration, and there is still incremental space in the pig seedling plate.
Risk statement
1. The sales volume of enterprises is less than expected;
2. Large scale outbreak of animal diseases;
3. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the price fluctuates greatly;
4. Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated;
5. Impact of natural disasters.
