Industry data:
Brand clothing: cooling down & the decline of clothing retail sales was improved to – 0.5% month on month under the catalysis of double 11
In November 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by + 3.9% year-on-year (mom-1pcts), up from + 9% in the same period in 2019. Among them, textile and clothing categories increased by – 0.5% year-on-year (growth rate + 2.8pcts month on month), up + 4% from November 2019. From the perspective of cumulative retail sales from January to November, textile and clothing society zero year-on-year + 14.9%, up + 2.9% from the same period in 2019. Online, from January to November 2021, the national online physical commodity sales of wearing goods increased by + 11.1% year-on-year, further slowing down 3pcts month on month. Specifically, this month or due to the diversion effect of the new platform, the double 11 activities were further amplified, and With the gradual daily trend of online shopping, the shopping demand during the double 11 is also scattered to be completed throughout the year. However, the average price increased year-on-year, or the overall discount narrowed and the proportion of new products increased due to the rationalization of brands and consumers. The sales of women’s / men’s / children’s / home textile / sportswear on Alibaba platform (tmall & Taobao) were – 11% / – 32% / – 27% / – 20% / – 19% year-on-year respectively, of which the sales of various categories were – 12% / – 29% / – 31% / – 6% / – 6% year-on-year respectively, and the average price was + 19% / + 5% / + 50% / + 93% / + 87% year-on-year respectively.
Textile manufacturing: cotton prices have dropped in the off-season, and garment / textile exports have performed well
Price: as of December 20, 2021, the cotton 328 price index closed at 21968 yuan / ton, with a month on month / year-on-year change of – 742 / + 6987 yuan. Although the cotton price is still high, it is significantly narrowed compared with the increase in the same period in November. Supply and demand: in November, USDA estimated that China’s cotton supply in 2021 / 22 was 8.056 million tons, the demand was 8.72 million tons, and the supply and demand gap was 664000 tons, 54000 tons more than expected in November, and the stock sales ratio was – 6.7 PCTs to 90.39%. From the perspective of the global market, the supply-demand gap in 2021 / 22 expanded to 590000 tons month on month, and the inventory sales ratio was – 6.2pcts to 50.07%, mainly due to the sharp decline in Pakistan’s output (- 218000 tons), which far offset the increase in output of other countries and regions (+ 169000 tons).
From the export data, the cumulative export amount of textile and garment from January to November 2021 was + 7.6% year-on-year, and + 15.6% compared with the same period in 2019. By category, the export amount of textile / clothing products in November was – 7.6% / + 24.9% year-on-year respectively, and the export amount in a single month was + 10% / + 22.8% year-on-year respectively. Garment exports continued the high growth rate in October. However, due to the gradual recovery of textile production in Southeast Asia, the growth rate further expanded in November, and the cumulative decline continued to narrow compared with the previous month.
Vietnam Textile: as of December 20, 2021, the number of new / existing confirmed cases in Vietnam on that day was 14977 / 415765. On the whole, the epidemic situation in Vietnam has remained serious since China unsealed Vietnam in early October. In terms of exports, Vietnam’s textile exports in November amounted to US $2.8 billion, with a low base of + 40% compared with the same period in 2020. The growth rate has improved significantly month on month, or benefited from the lifting of the closure of cities in Vietnam and the resumption of textile production capacity one after another.
Industry views and investment suggestions: 1) brand clothing, long-term optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry, accurate and differentiated positioning Anta sports (29x in 2022), China’s first sports brand with perfect multi brand matrix; 2) textile weaving. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading manufacturer of high-quality sports shoes Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) whose peers are seriously affected by the epidemic because their production capacity is concentrated in South Vietnam, while the company is less affected by the epidemic in Vietnam, has strong orders and increases production speed (29x in 2022); as well as the high growth civil nylon Integration Leader Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) (23x in 2022) who broke the overseas monopoly pattern due to technological breakthrough and forged high barriers through differentiated products, and the ecological and environmental protection integration leather leader Anhui Anli Material Technology Co.Ltd(300218) (15x in 2022) which drives the double acceleration of revenue and profit with the large number of large customers with high gross profit margin.
Risk tip: macroeconomic slowdown risk; The terminal consumption demand slows down; Cotton price change risk
