The new round of restricted entity list issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce
On the evening of December 16, the United States officially released a new round of restricted entity list, which is intended to restrict military medical technology. There are no biotech companies like the previous market rumors. Therefore, we believe that the previous market reaction panic has no real impact on the pharmaceutical industry as a whole.
Excessive panic in the market has no material impact on the pharmaceutical industry as a whole, and the pharmaceutical logic has not been broken
Judging from the list of restricted entities, the purpose of issuing the list of entities is mainly for scientific research institutes and some optoelectronic machinery enterprises, not for the pharmaceutical industry, and no biotechnology company is included. Therefore, we believe that it has no material impact on the pharmaceutical industry as a whole, and the development logic of the high boom sub industry has not been broken, It will not hinder the normal operation of enterprises and Sino US exchanges.
The release of this list further supports our optimism about the CXO industry. Although the CXO industry accounts for a relatively high proportion of overseas revenue in the pharmaceutical industry, because CXO is essentially a service-oriented processing industry and one of the keys to supporting innovation and helping American pharmaceutical enterprises reduce costs and improve efficiency, it does not involve any big country confrontation and game factors, and has good long-term development logic and space, It is still worth actively embracing, and most industries other than CXO account for a small proportion of direct sales business in the United States, which does not constitute a worry. Therefore, we believe that it has no material impact on the pharmaceutical industry as a whole.
Investment suggestions - actively select CXO, new consumption and life science industry chain
We believe that medicine still deserves to focus on several "tracks":
(1) True innovation: innovative pharmaceutical machinery and its industrial chain, the representative of independent innovation;
(2) CXO: as the biggest beneficiary of China's institutional dividend and industrial transfer, it has broad long-term development space, smooth development logic and is not disturbed by the game of big powers, which is worthy of active embrace.
(3) New manufacturing: the upstream life science industry chain and pharmaceutical equipment industry chain with high prosperity, with imports accounting for the main share. Under the background of self-reliance and self-improvement, there is a large space for domestic substitution, and the domestic market share is expected to continue to increase;
(4) New consumption: the internal circulation direction not affected by overseas business, such as blood products, traditional Chinese medicine and medical services, still has long-term development prospects relying on China's huge consumption base and endogenous consumption power.
Risk statement
Pharmaceutical industry policy is not as good as forecast; Overseas expansion is less than expected; Other systemic risks.
