Price: steel prices rose this week
This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 thread was 4900 yuan / ton, up + 2.1% from last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 5020 yuan / ton, up + 2.4% from last week. Raw material prices rose this week. Port iron ore prices rose this week; Coke prices were flat compared with last week; The price of scrap steel increased compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar increased month on month this week
In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is + 142 yuan / ton, + 135 yuan / ton and + 153 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of EAF steel rebounded slightly month on month this week.
Output and inventory: this week’s rebar output fell month on month, and the warehouses of the five major steel plants and social warehouses fell month on month
In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.09 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 21800 tons, of which the output of construction steel decreased by 97400 tons, the output of plate increased by 119200 tons, and the output of rebar decreased by 12400 tons to 2733800 tons this week. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week are 2393900 tons and 339900 tons respectively, and the cycle to ring ratio is – 0200 tons and – 12200 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties decreased by 530200 tons to 9.083 million tons, the total inventory of steel mills decreased by 4.4157 million tons, and the total weekly inventory decreased by 260700 tons, including 272500 tons of rebar social warehouse and 129300 tons of factory warehouse. In terms of apparent consumption and steel turnover, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3135600 tons, a decrease of 100700 tons on a week-on-week basis, and the daily average turnover of construction steel this week is 178000 tons, an increase of 3.28% on a week-on-week basis.
The marginal improvement of fundamentals and the profit per ton of steel continued to rise
The steel market confidence gradually recovered under the expectations of RRR reduction, real estate relaxation and other policies. Basically, under the background of policies such as limited production in heating season and double carbon, blast furnace operation continued to decline, steel output was low, and social inventory accelerated to decline. On the raw material side, the iron ore port inventory has been built up for three consecutive months, the coal supply has recovered under the stimulation of policies, and the steel cost is difficult to rise sharply. This week, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry is + 142 yuan / ton, + 135 yuan / ton and + 153 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week, and the profit per ton of steel has rebounded to the level of 1000 yuan again. On the whole, the steel fundamentals are still gradually improving, and the profit per ton of steel is expected to continue to rise. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel plate: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel plate: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Superalloy target: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) .
Risk statement
The demand for steel for real estate fell precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.
