Main points:
Optimistic about the investment opportunities in the computer industry next year and pay attention to the six boom tracks
As of December 14, 2021, the computer industry rose 4.11% this year, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 7.21pct, ranking 17th among the top 30 industries. Looking forward to next year, with the widening margin of monetary policy and the slowing margin of epidemic disturbance, we are optimistic about the overall market of the computer industry next year. Valuation dimension: current PE (TTM) is 53.4 times, which has fallen back to near the historical average; institutional position: the position ratio of 21q3 is 4.17%, the over allocation is 0.36pct, and the public funds return to the over allocation. Based on the prosperity model driven by four factors, we suggest to focus on the investment opportunities of six tracks next year: automotive intelligent networking, industrial software, AI +, network security, digital finance and aerospace informatization.
Automotive Intelligence: supply improvement and demand release
In 2022, it is recommended to focus on the intelligent car track. The main marginal changes are as follows: 1) supply side: the improvement trend of chip supply is increasingly clear, the delivery time of models is generally shortened, and the car sales are expected to recover next year. 2) Demand side: 2022 will be the first year of mass production of high-level intelligent driving. Under the trend of hardware embedding, software and hardware enterprises in relevant industrial chains will take the lead in benefiting and realizing performance release. It is estimated that by 2025, L2 / L3 intelligent networked vehicles will account for more than 50% of the annual sales of vehicles, and L4 vehicles will begin to enter the market. Focus on four incremental directions: lidar, intelligent driving domain controller, intelligent driving algorithm and solution, and intelligent cockpit.
Industrial software: localization + digital intelligence wave emerges
Under the wave of localization and digital intelligence, industrial software track will become the focus of future development: 1) localization has entered the 3.0 stage, and the key technology in the neck field is the next hot spot. Localization from 1.0 stage of PC machine and server to 2.0 stage of chip and module is about to move towards 3.0 stage of localization of the most upstream basic tool chain. CAX, EDA and scientific instruments will become the next key direction of localization. 2) The demand for digital transformation of high boom industries is strong: "double carbon" policy promotes energy reform. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the demand for digitization and intelligence of power and power grid investment continues to increase, and the prosperity of energy information industry is high. In addition, investment in intelligent manufacturing and smart people's livelihood continued to increase.
AI +: from technology exploration to large-scale commercial
The supervised learning algorithm of large sample training tends to be mature, and AI gradually moves from the early technical exploration to the commercialization of the industry. Data accumulation in specific industries + situational landing ability have become a new barrier for AI enterprises. From the perspective of downstream industry applications, focus on four directions: 1) AI + video IOT: industry empowerment from security to pan security, with a market space of nearly 50 billion in the future; 2) AI + education: under the double reduction policy, the improvement of quality and efficiency of school education has promoted the demand for intelligence, and the 100 billion track of intelligent education has set sail; 3) AI + manufacturing: AI accelerates the downstream application of machine vision. In 2026, the scale of China's market will reach 31.6 billion yuan, with five times the space for a long time; 4) AI + medical: three types of certificates for AI assisted diagnosis medical devices have been issued successively. Smart medical is in the early stage of commercialization. China's AI medical imaging space will reach 92.3 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound growth rate of more than 76% in the next 10 years.
Risk statement
1) The epidemic situation intensifies, reduces enterprise information expenditure and delays the pace of investment; 2) Fiscal and monetary policies are lower than expected; 3) The fluctuation of supply chain has increased, affecting the overall development of science and technology industry.
