1 Market Review: price performance exceeded expectations
The price of thermal coal is much higher than last year. According to wind data, as of December 16, 2021, the average market price of Qinhuangdao Power Coal q5500 was 1035 yuan / ton, about 79% higher than the average price of 577 yuan / ton in 2020. Before the Spring Festival, the price of power coal rose rapidly. During the Spring Festival, most coal mines produced normally due to the guarantee of supply, but the downstream industrial enterprises had holidays, the demand fell, the inventory accumulated, the coal price fell, the demand recovered after the Spring Festival, the coal management ticket became stricter, and the coal price returned to the rising channel. During the period, due to the frequent safety accidents, the price rose faster, It reached the highest point of 2592.5 yuan / ton in the year in late October. Since the fourth quarter, under the background of ensuring people's warm winter, the policy side has continuously issued policies to promote the reasonable decline of coal prices. With the continuous promotion of increasing production and ensuring supply, the supply of producing areas has been gradually relaxed. In addition, the government's price limit and other policies have been continuously promoted. Following the gradual implementation of the pit mouth price limit of 900 yuan / ton (q5500), the price has basically returned to a reasonable range and ushered in a stable period.
Coking coal price risk continued to release. According to wind data, as of December 16, 2021, the average price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 2520 yuan / ton, an increase of 68% over the average price of 1496 yuan / ton in 2020. Since the third quarter, the price trend of coking coal deviated from the demand. In the first quarter, the price of coking coal was basically stable and declined, and in the second quarter, the price basically increased with the increase of downstream steel production. Since June, coking coal prices have accelerated, while pig iron production has shown a continuous downward trend, which deviates from the actual demand. Since late October, coking coal prices have entered the downward channel. On the one hand, after entering winter, coking and iron and steel enterprises have entered the production restriction cycle, the operating rate of coking and iron and steel enterprises has continued to decline, and the demand has shown a downward trend. At the same time, increasing production and ensuring supply have continued to be implemented, and the supply side has continued to grow; On the other hand, the price limit of thermal coal has also had a certain impact on the price of coking coal, and the high price of coking coal has been corrected.
02 supply side capacity bottleneck continues
Increasing production and ensuring supply are effective, and Q4 output is continuously released
The increase of raw coal output from January to September is mainly due to the guarantee of supply at the beginning of the year and the non holiday of the Spring Festival. The increase of production and supply has been effective since October. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the raw coal output from January to September was 2.931 billion tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, of which the increase mainly came from the supply guarantee policy from January to February. At the same time, the epidemic stopped in the Spring Festival in 2020, resulting in a high growth rate. From March to September, the year-on-year growth rate of raw coal output was - 0.2%, - 1.8%, 0.8%, - 5%, - 3.3%, 0.8% and - 0.9% respectively. The actual release of output was limited. Since October, the guaranteed supply has gradually taken effect, and the year-on-year growth rate of raw coal production in October and November is 4% and 4.6% respectively.
