event
Longji’s official website released the latest quotation for monocrystalline silicon wafers. The sizes of M10, M6 and G1 silicon wafers were adjusted from 6.2, 5.32 and 5.12 yuan / piece to 5.85, 5.03 and 4.83 yuan / piece respectively, with a reduction range of 5.7%, 5.5% and 5.7%.
According to the installed capacity data released by the National Energy Administration in November, the installed capacity increased by 5.52gw in November, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to November this year was 34.8gw, of which the new installed capacity of household photovoltaic reached 16.49gw.
Key investment points
Longji silicon chips continue to reduce prices, and the demand for photovoltaic is not booming in the peak season. The price reduction of Longji monocrystalline silicon wafer was 5%, which was the second price reduction. The first price reduction was on November 30, when Longji adjusted the price of silicon wafer products, and the range was 7% – 10%. At present, the whole silicon wafer market is in surplus, and the industrial chain also reflects poor demand and poor peak season. With the price adjustment of silicon wafer giants twice, the price reduction has exceeded 10%, which is expected to stimulate the improvement of downstream operating rate. At present, silicon material manufacturers have not publicly adjusted their prices, but some manufacturers have quoted a low price of 210000-220000 yuan / ton. It is understood that at present, silicon material enterprises have a certain inventory. About one week, the prices of battery chips and components have not been reduced. These two links are expected to benefit from this silicon chip price reduction in the short term.
In November, household installed capacity exceeded expectations, reaching a record monthly high. In November, the installed capacity of household PV was 2.86gw, up 48% month on month, hitting a new monthly installed capacity. From January to November 2021, the newly installed capacity of household PV was 0.31, 0.28, 0.67, 1.35, 1.54, 1.73, 1.76, 1.85, 2.14, 1.93 and 2.86gw, maintaining a high growth. From January to November, the cumulative installed capacity of household was 16.49gw, with a year-on-year increase of 64%, which is the segment industry with the highest photovoltaic climate in China this year. The budget of household subsidy in 2021 was 500 million yuan, and December was the last month of subsidy. The price of superimposed industrial chain began to decrease, and the installed capacity of household photovoltaic in December is expected to continue to exceed the expectation.
The policy continues to promote household installed capacity and is optimistic that the demand will continue to increase high next year. From the perspective of policy, in June, the National Energy Administration issued the report on the pilot work of roof distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county (city, district) and district; on September 14, the National Energy Administration announced that a total of 676 roof distributed photovoltaic development pilots in the whole county (city, district) were submitted by 30 provinces in China, with huge potential market space for household photovoltaic installation.
Investment suggestions: 1. It is suggested to pay attention to the promotion of beneficiary targets in the whole county; 2. Optimistic about the integration of leading enterprises, if the silicon price begins to fall, the profitability of integrated enterprises is expected to improve; 3. It is suggested to pay attention to the inverter link that benefits from the rapid growth of photovoltaic and energy storage industries at the same time.
Risk factors: photovoltaic demand does not meet expectations; Industry competition intensifies; The risk of continued price rise in the industrial chain; Technology iteration risk. Notice on the pilot scheme of distributed photovoltaic development, which plans to organize and carry out the whole county (city
