Copper aluminum, diamond lithium and precious metal plates are recommended
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.99%, the SW nonferrous index fell 3.81%, Comex gold rose 0.87% and silver rose 0.65%. Among the prices of major industrial metals, LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by 4.69%, – 0.08%, 2.45%, 0.41%, – 1.08% and – 2.04% respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in major industrial metal inventories changed by 7.27%, 9.02%, 25.00%, – 1.12%, – 2.30% and 12.86% respectively.
Industrial metals: steady growth boosted demand, the Fed fell bearish, and industrial metal prices rebounded at a low level
Core view: China is approaching the end of the year, and the transaction is light. It is expected that the subsequent industrial metal demand may pick up steadily under the tone of steady economic growth. At the end of the overseas fed interest rate meeting, the official announced to speed up the taper, and the bearish landing. Commodity prices rebounded in the short term. In copper, the epidemic interferes with supply and transportation, the demand side is facing the end of recent years, spot trading slows down, and inventory is low or will support the operation of high prices. In terms of aluminum, the supply side continued to limit production, and the average operating rate of aluminum leading downstream processing enterprises on the demand side increased by 0.1pct to 67.7% month on month this week. The cost side continued to decline, the inventory was accelerated this week, the weekly inventory was 42000 tons to 910000 tons, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum rebounded sharply to 3035 yuan / ton. We continue to be optimistic that the supply and demand of industrial metals next year will benefit from China’s steady growth policy. Focus on: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , etc.
New energy Metals & small metals: the new capacity of lithium iron phosphate continues to climb, and the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise
Core view: in terms of cobalt, affected by the epidemic, the supply of cobalt salt is declining, the spot inventory of mainstream enterprises is scarce, and the price of cobalt salt may continue to rise. In terms of lithium, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars reached 364500 in mid November, with a month on month increase of 25.3%, a new high in the year. The new capacity of lithium iron phosphate plate is climbing, the demand for raw materials is rising sharply, and the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise sharply this week. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) .
Precious metals: the Federal Reserve announced to speed up the taper, and gold prices hit the bottom and rebounded
Core view: the market expects the Federal Reserve to announce the early termination of the bond purchase plan, and the gold price is under pressure in the early stage. However, after the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the bad landing, superimposed with the unexpected interest rate increase of the Bank of England, dragged down the US dollar, and the high trend of the US dollar fell back, supporting the bottom rebound of gold. Based on the reappearance of economic uncertainty under the havoc of Omicron and the worries of inflation and even stagflation next year, we continue to be optimistic about the investment value of gold. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Zhaojin gold industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk statement
Demand recovered less than expected, supply released more than expected, and policy uncertainty increased.
