Key investment points:
Looking forward to 2022, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 9-10 million, and the sales volume of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is expected to exceed 5 million. Although the easing of the supply-demand relationship of chips may lead to a certain recovery in the sales of fuel vehicles, the high demand in the downstream of electric vehicles has been verified, and the overall penetration rate continues to rise. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 22% next year.
In 2022, the supply of lithium ore will increase by about 15-20%, which is significantly lower than the 40% demand increase expected by the current market. It is difficult to change the tight supply and demand pattern of lithium ore in 2022. At the same time, the market will give companies with large expansion of production higher valuation flexibility under the condition of tight supply and demand.
Battery enterprises will transmit part of the costs to the downstream, increase the gross profit and further increase the number of stacked machines. Next year, battery enterprises are expected to improve their profits strongly and enjoy the dual elasticity from the increase of installed capacity and price rise. It is recommended to pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) .
The midstream material link may be differentiated. Diaphragm is still the strongest track. Under the background of tight supply and demand, the production expansion is smooth, and the leading enterprises will fully enjoy the dividends brought by the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) . The production of electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate is expanded greatly. After the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate turns around, some companies will show periodicity. At this time, facing the logical switch between hexafluoro and bifluoro, enterprises giving priority to bifluoro will seize the opportunity. It is suggested to pay attention to Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) and Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) . The positive lithium iron phosphate will continue to take the lead under the support of high cost performance and energy storage capacity. The ternary positive electrode will accumulate strength and wait for the outbreak of large cylindrical battery after the end of 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) . Under the influence of dual control of energy consumption, the graphitization capacity of negative electrode is limited and the relationship between supply and demand is improved. It is a good opportunity for negative electrode enterprises with high self graphitization to improve their gross profit and market share. It is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) .
Looking forward to 2022, the huge demand for new energy vehicles will benefit the lithium battery board as a whole, but the priority of the battery end will be significantly improved. Considering comprehensively, battery end > diaphragm > electrolyte, ore end, positive and negative electrodes.
Risk warning: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the price of upstream raw materials is excessively rising
