Core view
[market performance] last week, the CSI 300 index closed at 4954.76 points, down 1.59% in one week and - 3.00% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3632.36, down 1.16% in one week and up 5.57% year to date. Among Shenwan's 28 primary industries, the top three gainers last week were media (+ 2.66%), public utilities (+ 1.97%) and architectural decoration (+ 1.50); the top three gainers were transportation (- 0.64%), national defense and military industry (- 0.64%) and real estate (- 0.62%). Among them, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery decreased by 0.37% last week, ranking 22nd. Since the beginning of the year, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery decreased by 9.12%, ranking 26th.
[key information] 1) on December 13, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index was 126.97, down 0.63 points on a weekly basis, and the wholesale price 200 index of "vegetable basket" products was 129.49, down 0.75 points on a weekly basis. As of 14:00 on December 13, the average price of pork in the national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale market was 23.99 yuan / kg, down 1.9% on a weekly basis. (Ministry of agriculture and rural areas).
[Key announcement] the "Guangming No. 2" white feather broiler mating line jointly developed by the chicken genetics and breeding team of Beijing Institute of animal husbandry and Veterinary Sciences of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Guangdong Foshan Xinguang agriculture and animal husbandry Co., Ltd. has been approved by the national livestock and Poultry Genetic Resources Committee and has become one of the first three new white feather broiler varieties in China. It has broken the situation that China's white feather broiler provenance has been 100% dependent on imports since 2004.
[opinion]
Pig prices are expected to stabilize after rebounding in the fourth quarter. Driven by peak season consumption, pork prices rebounded in the fourth quarter. But overall, the supply of live pigs is at a high level. In the next stage, the pig price is expected to stabilize after the rebound, and it is unlikely to rise sharply.
The high prosperity of seed industry continues. Policy driven high prosperity of seed industry, "grain chip" has made great achievements. GM related work has been smoothly promoted. Superimposed with inflation expectations and rising overseas Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices, the prosperity of the seed industry will be improved, and the leaders will enjoy policy advantages.
Investment advice
Seed industry: Policy dividends are continuously released to ensure China's food security. The pattern of grain supply and demand has changed, the commercialization of GM has entered the fast lane, and the high prosperity of the seed industry continues. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with strong R & D strength and rich GM reserves.
Pig breeding: there is still a mismatch between supply and demand in the current market, and the inflection point of the pig cycle has not yet arrived. It is suggested to pay attention to self breeding and autotrophic leaders with cost advantages and second-line pig enterprises with sufficient reserves of sows.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic fluctuations; Non plague situation; Extreme weather effects, etc.
