Core view
[market performance] last week, the CSI 300 index closed at 5055.12 points, up 3.14% a week and down - 3.00% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3666.35, up 1.63% a week and 5.57% year to date. Among Shenwan's 28 primary industries, the top three gainers last week were media (+ 1.70%), non-ferrous metals (+ 1.37%) and power equipment (+ 1.20%); the top three gainers were coal (- 1.33%), non bank finance (- 1.02%) and steel (- 0.99%). Among them, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector fell 0.10% last week, ranking 15th. Since the beginning of the year, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector has decreased 9.12%, ranking 26th.
[key information] 1) last week (12.2-12.9) the average price of pork white bars in China was 22.83 yuan / kg, down 0.35 yuan / kg compared with last week, down 1.51% month on month, down 43.00% year-on-year. This is the first week after eight weeks of continuous rise in pork prices since the rebound of pig prices in October. Affected by the deregulation of production capacity this year, the supply pressure decreased relatively in the third and fourth quarters of this year, and gradually entered the peak season of demand at the end of the year Drive prices to show a certain rebound. (Ministry of agriculture and rural areas); 2) on December 7, the acquisition of autumn grain in China reached its peak, and the acquisition of autumn grain was generally progressing smoothly. The main production areas acquired 131 billion kg of autumn grain, roughly equivalent to the annual level. From the perspective of acquisition progress, the acquisition of 40.3 billion kg of medium and late indica rice and 36.2 billion kg of Japonica rice was faster than last year. The acquisition of 2.3 billion kg of soybeans was equivalent to last year's progress. The cumulative revenue The purchase of 52.2 billion kg of corn reached the average level in the same period in recent years. (State Food and material reserve bureau).
[Key announcement] announcement on prebiotic 909 obtaining the identification of supporting lines of new livestock and poultry varieties: the self-developed "prebiotic 909" small white feather broiler supporting line has been approved and identified by the national livestock and Poultry Genetic Resources Committee. According to the provisions of the measures for the approval of supporting lines of new livestock and poultry varieties and the identification of livestock and poultry genetic resources, The company will obtain the [Nong 09 new variety Certificate No. 92] certificate issued by the national livestock and Poultry Genetic Resources Committee.
[last week's view]
In November, the sales volume of listed pig enterprises was stable and the price recovered month on month. Last week, various listed pig enterprises issued sales briefings, and the slaughter volume of major pig enterprises remained stable on the whole. Prices have picked up in an all-round way.
Food security, long slope and thick snow, and the seed industry continued to enjoy a high boom. Policy driven high prosperity of seed industry, "grain chip" has made great achievements. GM related work has been smoothly promoted. Superimposed with inflation expectations and rising overseas Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices, the prosperity of the seed industry will be improved, and the leaders will enjoy policy advantages.
Investment advice
Seed industry: with the continuous release of policy dividends, the transformation of grain supply and demand pattern, the commercialization of GM has entered the fast lane, and the high prosperity of seed industry continues. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with strong R & D strength and rich GM reserves.
Pig breeding: the bottom of the current pig cycle is relatively clear, and pig stocks have a high safety margin. It is suggested to pay attention to self breeding faucets with cost advantages and second-line pig enterprises with sufficient reserves of sows.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic fluctuations; Non plague situation; Extreme weather effects, etc
