New energy vehicles: this year, electric vehicles belong to a comprehensive high-level market brought about by the continuous demand exceeding expectations, of which Tesla industrial chain is the strongest investment main line. According to the passenger Federation, in August 2021, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars was 300000, with a year-on-year increase of + 203% and a month on month increase of + 15%; 249000 vehicles were retailed, with a year-on-year increase of + 168% and a month on month increase of + 12%; Wholesale 304000 vehicles, year-on-year + 202%, month on month + 24%; The overall sales data in August exceeded market expectations. In July 2021, the US Senate’s US $1 trillion infrastructure bill was passed by a procedural vote, and the US electric vehicle policy entered an inflection point. We expect that the penetration rate of electrification is expected to catch up with China and Europe. In addition, the Biden government has set the ZEV target penetration rate of 50% in 2030. If PHEV is considered, the comprehensive penetration rate is expected to reach 60-70%, far exceeding the market expectation. At the right time, we pay more attention to the prosperity index with the midstream production scheduling and downstream production and marketing data as the core; From the perspective of stock selection, we are still optimistic about the leading companies with cost and product advantages in the medium and long term. At the same time, we are optimistic about the opportunities of both volume and price rise brought by short supply and the second-line elastic targets brought by capacity overflow. We continue to recommend: 1) power batteries: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other strong competitive leading targets. Positive pole ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ), electrolyte ( Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Tianci, Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) ), flame retardant ( Zhejiang Wansheng Co.Ltd(603010) ), lithium battery equipment ( Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ), lithium & copper foil, etc. 2) parts: core targets of Tesla industrial chain ( Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ), benefiting from the improvement of intelligent level Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (wire controlled braking), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (intelligent chassis), etc., carbon dioxide thermal management ( Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.Ltd(603960) ).
New energy power generation: (1) photovoltaic: the market is worried that the price rise will affect demand, but this worry misunderstands the logical order. This round of price rise is not caused by supply disturbance (3q20), which is caused by the increase of demand when the supply of scarce links remains unchanged. In 2021, the potential demand for photovoltaic is very high, and the supply chain can not meet the demand. The potential demand can only be reduced through price increase and profit distribution of the industrial chain to match the supply capacity. Both unit profit and total profit of the industrial chain are in the expansion stage. Recently, the prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers Decline, the price principle starts, and the terminal demand returns to equilibrium. We believe that 2021 is still a big year for photovoltaic demand, The newly installed capacity may reach 170gw (the demand for components limited by the supply chain), an increase of about 30% at the same time. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the supply and demand of silicon is tight, the supply and demand of EVA resin continues to be tight, the supply and demand of glass is relieved, the price of silicon wafer is supported or better than expected due to the supply release rhythm and cost curve, and the battery profit is in the bottom range. The current industry valuation in 2021 has a high horizontal and vertical comparison and high cost performance. Key recommendations: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , etc. it is suggested to pay attention to: Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi light energy, etc. (2) Wind power: considering the sea breeze, the second wave of land rush loading, large base projects and the opening of parity cycle, the demand may reach more than 50gw in 2021 (the demand caliber of the industrial chain increased year-on-year). The bidding volume in the first three quarters of 2021 reached 41.8gw, which also indicates that the installed capacity will continue to grow in 2022. The recent downward turn in bulk prices also dispels the market’s concern about cost. The whole machine link in the wind power industry chain is flexible and the performance of parts and components is highly deterministic. In addition, there is an obvious trend of large-scale in this round of wind power boom cycle, which has an impact on the industrial chain It is far-reaching and worthy of attention. At present, the median valuation of the industry in 2021 is 24 times, with high cost performance. Key recommendations: Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , etc. it is recommended to pay attention to: Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , etc. (3) Energy storage: the new energy storage will increase nearly 10 times in the next five years and develop rapidly. It is recommended to focus on the industrial chain dominated by lithium battery energy storage, including lithium battery, inverter and photovoltaic hydrogen production. It is recommended to focus on Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , and pay attention to Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.Ltd(300068) , etc.
Power Grid & industrial control: 1) under the direction of new power system, the growth rate of power grid investment is expected to increase, in which energy storage, digitization & informatization, distribution network, amorphous transformer, intelligent operation and maintenance, power electronics, flexible DC and other links are expected to be strengthened. Yunlu shares, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , and Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Shanghai Holystar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688330) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) are recommended. 2) Under the dual carbon background, the demand for industrial control has been improving for a long time, the downstream demand for lithium battery, photovoltaic, logistics, semiconductor and other products has maintained a high momentum, the share of domestic industrial control brands has accelerated, and the orders and performance are expected to continue to exceed expectations. It is recommended that Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shenzhen Megmeet Electrical Co.Ltd(002851) , Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) etc. 3) In the context of dual carbon, the construction of new energy power generation & energy storage, 5g, data center, charging pile and other industries has accelerated, the demand for supporting low-voltage appliances and relays has increased rapidly, and the proportion of high-end & Intelligent has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to Kunshan Guoli Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(688103) such as Shanghai Liangxin Electrical Co.Ltd(002706) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) .
Major changes in the industry:
New energy vehicles: 1) German electric vehicle subsidies exceeded expectations and the industry has broad growth space;
New energy power generation: (1) from January to November, the installed capacity of wind power / photovoltaic increased by 24.70/34.83gw, and the installed capacity of household photovoltaic increased by 2.86gw in November, which exceeded the expectation; (2) the price of silicon decreased, Longji reduced the quotation of silicon wafer, and the terminal demand returned to equilibrium.
Risk warning: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the policy is less than expected; Market fluctuation risk, power curtailment risk and technology renewal risk brought by de subsidy; The investment in power grid was less than expected, and the promotion of power grid 5g construction was less than expected. Industry measurement deviation risk.
