With the word "stability" at the forefront, the margin of monetary policy has warmed up. According to the latest macro data, the macro economy has a slight improvement trend. Under the care of the marginal improvement of monetary policy since the fourth quarter, the growth rate of social finance has improved, but the extent and sustainability of the improvement still need to be observed. The economic work conference in December pointed out that China's economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations, and called for "stability and progress in stability" in economic work next year. Monetary policy is "flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity", and steady growth has become the primary policy goal. The marginal improvement of monetary policy is mainly the adjustment of structural tools, with the main goal of unblocking the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, reaching the real economy and meeting the financing needs of enterprises, such as carbon emission reduction support tools, focusing on small and micro enterprises, green development and scientific and technological innovation.
The financing needs of the real economy still need to be restored. The balance of RMB loans increased by 11.7% year-on-year, the growth rate further slowed down, the growth rate of enterprise loans fell, and the activity of enterprise activities needs to be improved. Since this year, the structure of banking loans has been adjusted, the growth rate of real estate loan balance is lower than that of various loans, and the proportion has decreased for three consecutive quarters. The proportion of loans in Inclusive Finance and green finance has increased, and the policy guidance is gradually reflected in the preference of bank loans.
The 1-year LPR interest rate was lowered. On December 20, the one-year LPR decreased again after 20 months. The one-year LPR in December was 3.80%, compared with 3.85% in the previous period; The varieties with a maturity of more than 5 years are the same. It is expected that the policy requirements of transferring profits to the real economy next year will still suppress the net interest margin of commercial banks. The reduction of one-year LPR is more about the policy care of the financing cost of the real economy. The long-term loan interest rate will remain, which will have a certain impact on the bank's asset side yield. However, through measures such as debt side cost control and loan investment adjustment, the impact is expected to be relatively controllable. At the same time, increasing non interest income, such as the expansion of wealth management and investment banking business, will alleviate the pressure caused by the decline of net interest margin.
In November, the banking sector continued to adjust. The bank index fell 4.28% in November, weaker than the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index. The correction of the sector was obvious, the valuation of the index and individual stocks were generally lowered, and the industry Pb fell to 0.68x, breaking a new record low. With the marginal improvement of monetary policy and the gradual repair of the real economy, the banking sector as a whole is expected to usher in valuation repair. At the same time, valuation differentiation will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to joint-stock banks and urban commercial banks with leading wealth management layout, stable and upward profitability, good asset quality, strong business growth, regional economic support and large development space.
Risk tip: the downward pressure on the economy is increasing; Deterioration of asset quality; The epidemic situation intensified in autumn and winter;
