Main points
Consumer building materials: real estate risk exposure repair, leading sword, diversified layout. Evergrande incident affected relevant partners and even the general subcontractors of the whole industry. The bulk hardcover business of consumer building materials company is blocked, and the bad debt rate has increased significantly. It is expected that the company’s statements will be repaired slowly next year. From January to October 2021, the completed housing area in China was 573 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 16.30%. In October, the completed housing area in China was 63 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.56%. It is expected that the completion data in the first half of 2022 will still be supported, leading enterprises will seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, broaden the scope of cooperation with high-quality real estate enterprises, strengthen the multi-channel and multi category layout of home decoration and retail, and highlight the investment value. Related subjects: Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) (002791. SZ), Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) (603737. SH).
Cement: the real estate is expected to guide, the infrastructure may be accelerated, and the profit of cement leaders under the dual control of energy will be repaired. The Politburo meeting set the tone of steady growth and “moderately advanced infrastructure investment”, strengthened the expected guidance of the real estate industry, explored new development models, and accelerated the construction of affordable housing, so as to ensure the overall stability of the demand side. The issuance of special bonds is accelerated, and infrastructure construction may be accelerated. From January to October 2021, the total issuance of special bonds of local governments was 4.02 trillion, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.01%. On the whole, it is expected that the policy side will be stable in 2022, the real estate infrastructure is expected to be strengthened, and the industry valuation may be repaired. Related subject matter: Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) (000789. SZ).
Glass: “electro-optic” drives the old power to transfer to new potential energy. Photovoltaic glass benefits from the determination of the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry, so the demand is still, and there is a seasonal mismatch in capacity release; Under the double carbon policy, the new supply of float glass is limited. Supported by the completion data in November, the glass inventory decreased. With the progress of technology and the increasingly mature process, the production capacity switching cost was reduced; The shipments of smart phones have increased steadily, the “independent consciousness” of domestic manufacturers’ industrial chain has been continuously improved, the localization of high gross profit electric glass has been gradually improved, mass production and sales have been realized, and the trend of domestic substitution continues. Related subjects: Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (000012. SZ), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636. SH).
Glass fiber: driven by wind power, automobile and PCB, the prosperity of glass fiber industry is upward. Glass fiber is widely used, covering traditional industries such as building materials, as well as growth industries such as new energy and wind power. The prosperity of three application scenarios of downstream new energy vehicles, wind power and PCB is determined, the demand is expanded, and the demand of glass fiber industry is expected to be further improved. Related subjects: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176. SH), Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (002080. SZ).
New materials: carbon fiber is in a period of development opportunities, and the demand for wind power is rising. Global demand for carbon fiber capacity is on the rise, and domestic carbon fiber capacity expansion ushers in a period of development opportunities; Carbon neutralization promotes the development of clean energy, and the new installed capacity of wind power drives the rise of demand. Related subject: Jilin Carbon Valley (836077. BJ).
Risk statement
Downstream demand growth is less than expected; The regulation of energy consumption exceeded expectations.
