Key investment points:
Recent market review
From November 21, 2021 to December 21, 2021, CSI 300 rose by 0.48%, the machinery sector rose by 1.77%, outperforming the market by 1.29 percentage points, ranking 20th among all the primary industries of Shenwan, and 19 sub industries fell by 8 and rose by 11. Among them, the sub industries with better performance were metallurgy, mining and chemical equipment, agricultural machinery and construction machinery, up 7.91%, 7.06% and 5.35% respectively.
As of December 21, 2021, the industry TTM P / E ratio is 26 times (overall method, excluding negative values), and the valuation premium rate relative to CSI 300 is 104%.
Review of the overall situation of the machinery industry
In terms of construction machinery, about 20400 excavators were sold in November, a year-on-year decrease of 36.6%, of which 14000 were sold in China, a year-on-year decrease of 51.4%; 6430 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of 89%. In November, 9975 loaders of various types were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.53%. In the Chinese market, 7031 loaders of various types were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 17%; 2944 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%. In terms of forklift sales, the sales of forklift trucks in the whole industry in November was about 87700, a year-on-year increase of 2.03%. From the start-up hours of excavators, the start-up hours of Komatsu in November decreased by 19.5% year-on-year to 109.7 hours. Other major regions in the world have improved to varying degrees, of which the number of startup hours in Europe was 81.0 hours, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; Indonesia started up 196.4 hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; North America increased by 10.9% year-on-year to 71.3 hours, and Japan increased slightly by 2.5%.
In terms of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry in November was 13.7%. In the main downstream application scenarios, the fixed asset investment in automobile industry fell by 3.2% in November, and the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in 3C industry maintained a high level of 21.4%. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of fixed asset investment in downstream manufacturing industry, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output increased by 27.9% year-on-year in November to 31900 units. In the future, with the gradual dissipation of the impact of the epidemic and the continuous recovery of manufacturing investment, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) production and marketing data will continue to improve, and the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial chain will usher in a golden period of domestic substitution.
investment strategy
In terms of construction machinery, the sales volume of excavators in November was about 20400 units, a year-on-year decrease of 36.6%, of which the decline of sales volume in China expanded to - 51.4%, and the export continued the high growth trend. From January to November 2021, the sales volume of excavators was 318700 units, with a year-on-year increase of 7.66%, slightly lower than the annual growth expectation of 10%. According to the data of major downstream application industries in November, the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment maintained a downward trend, the cumulative year-on-year decline of infrastructure investment expanded to 0.17%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment narrowed to 6%. In terms of policy, with the release of the energy consumption dual control plan by the national development and Reform Commission, a new round of production restriction measures are deployed in many places across the country, including setting the upper limit of output, staggered peak production, power restriction, requiring shutdown and maintenance, etc. We expect a new round of price adjustment in Q1 industry in 2022 to cope with the cost rise caused by production restriction. Under this expectation, it is suggested to focus on leading enterprises with strong cost transfer ability in the industry, such as leading Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) (600984) of construction machinery and Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) (601100) of core parts manufacturers.
In terms of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , we believe that the prosperity of the industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) will continue to benefit from the growth of fixed asset investment in manufacturing in 2021. At present, China is in an important stage of manufacturing capacity transformation from low-end to high-end. With the gradual decline of China's demographic dividend and the continuous downward exploration of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) prices, the price scissors difference between the two has been significantly reduced, Machine replacement will become an important trend of manufacturing transformation in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leading industrial enterprises Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) (300607), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) (002747), and domestic reducer faucets Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) (688017).
Risk warning: risk of global epidemic spread; Macroeconomic growth is lower than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Global trade friction risk.
