Core logic
Nickel: pattern change under dual supply and demand structure
Traditional nickel supply and demand path: laterite / nickel sulfide ore → ferronickel / electrolytic nickel → alloy and stainless steel. Traditional nickel supply and demand is mainly through pyrometallurgical smelting of nickel sulfide ore or laterite nickel ore to form electrolytic nickel or ferronickel / NPI, which is used in the fields of alloy, stainless steel and so on.
New nickel supply and demand path: laterite / nickel sulfide ore → nickel sulfate → battery. With the rapid development of the global new energy vehicle industry, nickel sulfate as an important raw material for power battery, the demand growth rate is rising rapidly. At present, the preparation of nickel sulfate from intermediate products of hydrometallurgy of laterite nickel ore is the main development direction. After the Qingshan pyrometallurgical high matte nickel is put into operation, it means that the nickel iron smelted by laterite nickel ore has opened the channel for conversion to high matte nickel.
Demand side: it is estimated that the global nickel demand will be 3.48 million tons in 25 years, and CAGR = 7.99% in 5 years
Stainless steel is the largest downstream demand field for nickel, accounting for more than 70%. In the battery industry, nickel is divided into three yuan material precursors for power batteries and nickel foam, hydrogen storage alloy and nickel for nickel hydrogen batteries. Nickel is also widely used in the field of alloy and electroplating.
According to the calculation, the demand for nickel in the battery field is expected to reach 580000 tons in 25 years, with CAGR = 48.62% in 5 years, and the demand proportion will increase from 3% in 20 years to 17% in 25 years; It is estimated that the nickel demand in stainless steel field will reach 2.21 million tons in 25 years, and CAGR = 5.76% in 5 years; It is estimated that the demand for nickel in other industrial fields will reach 690000 tons in 25 years, with CAGR = 2.16% in 5 years.
Supply side: the global nickel supply is expected to be 3.67 million tons in 25 years, and CAGR = 7.72% in 5 years
Indonesia ranks first in nickel reserves and output in the world. China's nickel resource reserves account for 3% and its dependence on foreign countries is as high as 86%. After Indonesia implemented the ban on nickel ore export, China invested in the construction of nickel smelters in Indonesia and vigorously developed ferronickel smelting projects. The global lateritic nickel ore resources account for 60%, and the nickel sulfide ore accounts for 40%. The nickel ore supplied worldwide is mainly lateritic, accounting for about 70%. The mining history of sulfide nickel ore is long, the conditions such as resources and mining cost gradually decline, and the output decreases year by year.
According to the calculation, it is estimated that in 25 years, Indonesia's ferronickel output will be 1.37 million tons, China's and other regions' ferronickel output will be 507800 tons, the global nickel sulfide output will be 734600 tons, the global hydrometallurgy output will be 501900 tons, and the global thermal high matte output will be 264000 tons.
Supply and demand balance: overall surplus of global primary nickel supply in 21-25 years
According to the calculation, the global nickel supply will be in excess in 21-25 years. Demand recovered in 21 years, with an excess supply of 90000 tons. From 22 to 23 years, Indonesia's Ferronickel, hydrometallurgy and pyrometallurgical high matte projects were put into operation, with an excess supply of 290000 tons and 320000 tons respectively.
Investment proposal & investment object
Under the dual supply and demand structure of nickel, in the short term, nickel for stainless steel is still the mainstream, nickel for new energy vehicle batteries has entered a rapid growth stage, superimposed with the structural shortage of nickel sulfate supply, and the nickel price is expected to rebound. In the medium and long term, the differentiation of nickel sulfate supply sources for batteries will become a key factor in the subsequent nickel price trend. After the Qingshan pyrometallurgical high matte nickel project was put into operation, the process chain between stainless steel and battery was opened, and the ferronickel production capacity was effectively released. In the follow-up, the cost difference between various technical routes should be mainly tracked. Focus on companies with integrated layout Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
Risk statement
Downstream demand is lower than expected; The supply of nickel sulfide ore and laterite nickel ore exceeded expectations.
