Market review last week:
Last week (December 13-december 17), the social service sector (Shenwan) fell 0.58%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.61%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 3.37%. The social service sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34 percentage points last week, ranking 16th among the weekly increases and decreases of Shenwan’s 35 primary sub industries.
Core view: Hainan’s passenger flow has improved month on month and is optimistic about the recovery trend in the future
The average daily passenger flow of Sanya Phoenix Airport from October / November / December 1-11 was 4.14/3.18/39800 person times respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 22.2% / – 46.1% / – 37.7% respectively; The average daily passenger flow of Haikou Meilan Airport from October / November / December 1-11 was 4.35/3.53/42300 person times respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 23.7% / – 44.4% / – 36.0% respectively. The repeated impact of the epidemic has put pressure on the passenger flow. However, with the gradual control of the epidemic situation, in the future, with the month on month recovery of passenger flow, it is expected that the average daily sales of China free will also recover well. At the same time, there are many double 12 discount promotions, and the passenger flow of offline duty-free stores is expected to be significantly improved.
Judging from the situation in the fourth quarter, the discount of China tax exemption in this quarter did not slow down significantly month on month. However, considering the dilution of expenses and costs after the increase of scale, it is expected that the overall profit margin will still be improved month on month. It is expected that the recovery of passenger flow in Hainan will continue to be an important factor affecting the profit next year. It is suggested to actively pay attention to the fundamental changes of the company, and the revenue and profit recovery brought by the rebound of passenger flow in Hainan in the future can be expected.
Although the recurrence of the current epidemic situation has a certain impact on the industry, after the epidemic situation is controlled, we are optimistic about the relatively clear recovery trend of the tax-free industry supported by the recovery of passenger flow. We are optimistic about the expected recovery of revenue and profit of leading enterprises such as China free after the recovery of passenger flow.
Company announcement and industry information:
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : the company plans to acquire 100% equity of China Hong Kong China Travel Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the transaction price is RMB 126 million; Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) : the company has transferred 100% equity and related creditor’s rights of Xiangtan Huatian, received the filing notice, and Xiangtan Huatian has completed the industrial and commercial change registration; Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) : the company has received various government subsidies totaling 1158200.75 yuan; Xi’An Tourism Co.Ltd(000610) : the company has received various government subsidies totaling 6351584.70 yuan; Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) : the company has received government subsidies totaling 4314372.79 yuan.
Investment suggestions:
Duty free industry: we are optimistic about the relatively clear recovery trend of the duty-free industry under the support of passenger flow recovery. Focus on the expected revenue and profit recovery of leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) after the recovery of passenger flow.
Hotel Industry: the upgrading of industry structure and chain trend are obvious, the leading hotel group has obvious brand, scale and management advantages, and there is good growth space in the future. Focus on leading enterprises Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group.
Catering and Tourism: under the epidemic situation, the industry recovery is under short-term pressure, and the industry chain trend is obvious. Pay attention to the store expansion and business performance of leading catering enterprises. Focus on bottom fishing, sipping and sipping.
Risk tips:
Repeated epidemic impact; Macroeconomic fluctuations; Policy regulatory risk.
