Core view
1. The demand continues to grow, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remains high. Since 2021, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has entered an obvious upward trend. As of December 17, 2021, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate in China’s market closed at 550000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of about 428.85%.
The price rise of lithium hexafluorophosphate mainly benefited from the continuous growth of demand for new energy vehicles. At present, lithium hexafluorophosphate is mainly used to produce electrolyte for power batteries. Since this year, China’s new energy vehicle industry has maintained rapid growth. As of November 2021, the sales level of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles has reached 450000, a year-on-year increase of 124.8%. Under the background of continuous high sales of new energy vehicles, China’s electrolyte production level has also increased significantly. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, China produced 45000 tons of electrolyte in November 2021, a year-on-year increase of nearly 50%. In this context, the supply-demand relationship of lithium hexafluorophosphate has gradually tightened, driving the continuous upward price of the product.
The new energy vehicle industry will continue to produce large quantities, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate may continue to be high. In the context of global carbon neutrality, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will gradually increase. Assuming that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 35% of the total sales volume in 2025, the corresponding sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2025 will be 9.1603 million, and the corresponding installed capacity of power batteries will be 3.213 million tons, which will have more than twice the growth space compared with the current. In the case of continuous and large-scale demand in the industry in the future, it is expected that the supply-demand relationship of lithium hexafluorophosphate will continue to be tight, driving the product price to continue to run at a high level.
2. The index of chemical products increased slightly, and the price of urea increased significantly. In the past week, the price index of China’s chemical products increased by about 0.1% compared with a week ago, of which the price of urea increased significantly and the price of heavy soda ash decreased significantly. In terms of urea, the mainstream price of urea market in Jiangsu closed at 2570 yuan / ton last week, up about 4.5%. The rise of urea price is mainly affected by the tightening relationship between supply and demand. At present, some gas head urea manufacturers are in the maintenance period, and the demand for fertilizer preparation in some regions has increased. In terms of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in China last week was 2721 yuan / ton, down about 17.5%. The decline in the price of heavy soda ash is mainly due to the lack of active procurement in the downstream market, and enterprises mostly wait-and-see and purchase on demand.
3. UK natural gas prices continued to strengthen. As of December 17, the continuous settlement price of UK natural gas futures closed at 344.9 pence / Semm, up 28.3% this week. UK natural gas prices have continued to rise this year, mainly affected by three factors. First, clean transformation of the global energy structure. At present, countries all over the world are vigorously developing the field of new energy, so the consumption proportion of cleaner natural gas in traditional fossil energy is continuously increasing. Second, the “Beixi No. 2” pipeline has not been approved. At present, the “Beixi No. 2” natural gas pipeline in Europe has not been ventilated, and there are certain restrictions on natural gas supply in Europe. Third, the demand for gas in winter increases. At present, the world’s major economies are in winter, and the demand for heating drives the increase of natural gas consumption.
4. Market review. Last week, 18 of the 31 Shenwan tertiary industries rose or were flat, and 13 fell. Last week, among the sub sections of chemical industry, carbon blackboard increased the most, reaching 7.1%; The largest decline was in the paint and ink manufacturing sector, with a decline of 4.2%. In terms of individual stocks, the top three gainers are Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co.Ltd(002783) , Zhejiang Great Southeast Co.Ltd(002263) , Ningxia Xinri Hengli Steel Wire Rope Co.Ltd(600165) , with weekly gains of 29.8%, 25.4% and 23.3% respectively; The top three weekly declines were Letong Chemical Co.Ltd(002319) , Zhejiang Benli Technology Co.Ltd(301065) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , with weekly declines of 17.2%, 14.1% and 13.1% respectively.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the benefit targets under the upward price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, such as Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) .
Risk statement
Abnormal fluctuations in international oil prices, worsening of the international covid-19 epidemic, and upgrading of safety and environmental protection policies.
