Summary of investment strategy of food and beverage industry in 2022: the food and beverage sector fluctuated in 2021, and the fundamentals of Baijiu were robust, but the valuation fluctuated significantly. Looking forward to 2022, the food and beverage industry has the certainty of Baijiu growth and the elasticity of the performance of mass products, and the investment opportunities will exceed this year. It is recommended that food and beverage should be added to the public, and the mass distribution of products should be focused on. Baijiu Baijiu is still a steady base for liquor making. The growth of high-end Baijiu is still high and the foundation of performance acceleration is high. The second high-end marginal rate of decline is still strong. But some of the solid foundation liquor enterprises can maintain a higher growth rate. The regional leaders are expected to show their growth performance on the basis of strengthening channels and product operation capabilities and optimizing the incentive mechanism. Baijiu plate investment can be selected on the basis of high certainty varieties to select growth stocks to increase income. In terms of popular products, at present, the price rise is actively transmitted, and the marginal relaxation of macro policies is conducive to the recovery of demand. The bottom of popular products has passed, and all sub industries will return to the profit upward channel next year. In the process of reshuffle of the industry, the leaders actively respond to consolidate their advantages and are expected to take the lead in confirming the improvement of fundamentals. The intensive announcement of price increase information at the end of the year has promoted the first round of rise in the mass products sector. From historical experience, the rise at this stage belongs to the performance repair, which is expected to drive the valuation repair. Later, it will enter the verification stage of performance improvement. With the confirmation of the upward fundamentals of the industry and the company, the board will rise more sharply and for a longer time, At present, the quality targets of mass food are still offensive, and it is expected to meet the demand in 2022. Due to the differences in the competition pattern, demand toughness and elasticity and cost trend among sub sections, there are differences in the expected time points for the re strengthening of fundamentals. Some sub industries need to be vigilant against the stock price correction caused by the poor performance repair in the first half of 22 years.
Baijiu: risk slow release, stable and far. Combined with the analysis of the macro environment and the observation of the industry boom, we think the revival of the Baijiu liquor cycle? The stage of all-round prosperity has passed and is now in the middle and late stage of prosperity. The liquor companies in this round of Baijiu cycle maintain good inventory, leading to tighten up price control and supervision, pay attention to the potential risk points of the industry and strengthen order maintenance. Although the boom has declined slightly in the second half of the year, it is different from the crisis that the price expectation is turning to the channel to accelerate the selling in 2012, and the risk of industrial stall is small. Baijiu Baijiu is expected to continue its structural boom next year: the high-end Baijiu spirit is expected to maintain, the main tone of the steady growth is unchanged, the high-end liquor is changing positively at the end of the year, and the momentum of growth will be increased next year. The overall growth rate of the secondary high-end will slow down marginally. In the future, with the industry changing from a hundred flowers to brand competition and cooperation, the secondary high-end liquor enterprises will accelerate to differentiation. The liquor enterprises with solid channel foundation and perfect internal mechanism have obvious competitive advantages. The moat of the liquor enterprises with improved brand strength is deeper, which will achieve higher growth faster than the industry, and the growth is expected to continue to show; Low and medium Baijiu liquor has strong consumption attributes and fierce competition in the industry. It is expected that the famous liquor series and the middle and low end Baijiu will continue to enhance their market share through channels and brand advantages. Some of the regional leaders will benefit from the upgrading of regional consumption and participate in the incremental competition of the secondary high-end price bands. Regional leaders with strong channel capacity are also expected to gradually expand to the surrounding markets and seize the share of small and medium-sized liquor enterprises. This year, the consumption tax reform is expected to accelerate. The market is worried that the consumption tax reform will cause the shrinkage of Baijiu enterprises. This has become one of the reasons for the valuation of the Baijiu plate. We analyze the potential impact of the consumption tax reform on the profit of liquor enterprises, and judge that the top brands of famous Baijiu are very strong, strong demand and relatively scarce supply, the channel spreads are large, and wine enterprises have strong voice for the channels. The profit of winery is limited by the changes of tax policies, but it does not rule out that the implementation of strategies for wineries should take some time. The possibility of short-term disturbance on the profit side. Enterprises with weak brand power and weak channel bargaining power need to bear a certain proportion of the new tax burden, and the profit margin is under downward pressure. In the long run, the consumption tax reform will intensify the industry differentiation, and the trend of the strong being the strong is more obvious.
Baijiu plate investment strategy: under the guidance of prudent operation, the fundamentals of the industry remain steady, and the future will continue to be characterized by structural prosperity. In the context of the slowdown in macroeconomic trends, the growth of high-end Baijiu is more scarce. The growth of the top three strong / five / LV is expected to accelerate. Baijiu Baijiu, the long time of high-end liquor evaluation has experienced a long time. With the liquidity constraints and policy risk worries, the valuation of high-end liquor has experienced a long time. Considering that the fundamentals of high-end liquor have strong support, the consumption tax has limited impact on high-end brands of liquor brands, and the valuation of the Baijiu liquor brings opportunities for high-end liquor distribution. For the high-end Baijiu, the matching of growth, certainty and valuation should be considered. Secondary high-end liquor enterprises with good brand foundation, outstanding channel management ability, clear business strategy and strong internal vitality are expected to more smoothly realize the logic of high-end + nationalization, so as to continuously release the performance flexibility; Liquor enterprises with poor channel inventory sorting may face speed reduction, so they need to focus on tracking the real dynamic sales of products and channel inventory. Other Baijiu, from bottom to top, dig stocks, focusing on the size of regional leaders to enhance market share, high-end product volume brought about by the elasticity of performance, and incentive mechanism reform to stimulate the vitality of the company’s internal role. Recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , and pay attention to Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) .
Popular products: get out of the bottom and look forward to the counterattack. On the cost side, under the background of the sharp increase of enterprise cost pressure, the tide of Q4 industrial price increase has arrived. At present, the price increase is actively transmitted to downstream consumers, and the PPI rate will drop next year. The suppression of cost pressure on enterprise performance will be relieved next year. On the demand side, from the economic recovery after multiple rounds of mutated virus disturbance from 2020 to 2021, the continuous weakening of the impact of the epidemic in 2022 is a high probability event, and the problem of limited consumption scenarios is gradually alleviated. In terms of macro policies, the demand for steady growth has increased, and employment is still the focus of economic work in 2022. It is expected that residents’ consumption ability and willingness will continue to improve. We judge that the overall demand will maintain the improvement direction next year, and the required consumption may show stronger toughness. The demand environment faced by the mass food industry is probably better than this year. In addition, during the current round of industry operation pressure, we observed that some industry leaders or expand production / stores against the trend, or actively respond to the impact of community group buying, actively explore channel changes, and the business ability is expected to be strengthened. It is expected that in the future, with the recovery of industry prosperity, the leaders will benefit the fastest and the greatest extent, and the market share will further concentrate on the leaders.
Investment strategy of popular products sector: at present, the industry is in the stage of going out from the bottom. It is expected that many food companies will welcome performance improvement in 2022. After the pessimism of the popular goods sector was fully reflected this year, the valuation basically returned to a reasonable range. We believe that popular goods can be used as the key layout direction next year. Raising prices to promote performance improvement is one of the clearest main lines. It is suggested to pay attention to the sub industry pattern, pay attention to the transmission effect of raising prices and the cost inflection point, and grasp the rhythm of counter attack. In the short term, the pace of demand recovery is still uncertain. It is expected that the transmission speed factor of price increase to downstream consumers varies from industry to industry. The subdivided industries with excellent competition pattern, strong demand toughness and benign channel inventory will benefit from price increase faster, and the certainty of performance improvement will be high. At the same time, the plight of industrial operation often accelerates the reshuffle of the industry. In this round, the leaders of the central molecular industry respond positively, which is expected to gain greater market share and consolidate the leading advantages, which is finally reflected in the improvement of pricing power. In addition, it is suggested to actively pay attention to the arrival of the price inflection point of main raw and auxiliary materials, and the superposition effect of cost inflection point and price increase is expected to significantly thicken the profitability of relevant companies. At the sub sector level, dairy products are currently recommended, and beer and condiments are gradually distributed. At the company level, recommend Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , focus on Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , focus on Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) . Under the main line of other investments, Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) is recommended and Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) is concerned.
Risk warning: demand recovery is not as expected; Repeated epidemic situation; The prices of raw and auxiliary materials and energy accelerated upward; Industry competition intensifies; Policy changes beyond expectations; Food safety issues.
