Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596)
The third quarter reported steady growth, and the reservoir guaranteed the annual performance
The company’s 2021q1-q3 revenue was 10.102 billion yuan, an increase of 25% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.969 billion yuan, an increase of 28% at the same time. Of which, the operating revenue of 2021q3 was 3.095 billion yuan, an increase of 21% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 590 million yuan, an increase of 15% in the same period, with a steady growth in the third quarter. At the end of 2021q3, the contract liabilities were 2.79 billion yuan, an increase of 580 million yuan month on month and 1.95 billion yuan year on year. The reservoir effect is still obvious. In the middle and late December, dealers have started to pay, and we expect the proportion to be about 40%. The first quarter of next year is expected to start well. Business target for 2021: revenue of 12 billion yuan, an increase of 16.59% at the same time; The total profit was 2.847 billion yuan, an increase of 15.08%.
Hold high and beat Gu 20, and the product structure has been upgraded smoothly
Since 2018, the company has mainly promoted Gu 20 and invested a lot of resources and energy in Hefei. After three years of market cultivation, At present, the mainstream price band in this region has risen to Gu 8 (200-250 yuan price band), and the mainstream price band in other regions of Anhui Province is Gu 5, and the demonstration effect of the provincial capital is expected to spread in the future. On the whole, we think that the upgrading of the company’s product structure is relatively smooth this year, and it is expected that the proportion of products of Gu 8 and above has exceeded 40%. The company’s current focus is Gu 20, and Gu 16 is promoted through Gu 20 (the price band of 300-400 yuan for the card position), which has driven the growth of gu8, gu5 and even the gift version. In recent two years, the growth rate of products within 100 yuan in Anhui Province has slowed down. The company has proposed to maintain the price, quantity and position of the gift and gu5 products, stabilize the basic market of the company, and increase the brand strength through the acceleration and volume of gu16 and GU20.
The 14th five year plan will be opened in and outside the province, with nationalization + secondary high-end dual drive
The company acquired laomingguang liquor industry in the province last year, with the intention of strengthening the leading position in the province and continuing to reap the market share of products with a price of less than 100 yuan in the province. At present, the 1000 yuan price band is expanding and rising. The company has a firm strategy to mainly promote the secondary high-end GU20, and actively reserve high-end products such as antique New Year’s Eve.
In the 14th five year plan, the company adheres to the strategy of “nationalization + secondary high-end”, speeds up the promotion of “nationalization and secondary high-end”, and creates large-scale provinces, large-scale markets, large-scale customers, large-scale single products and large-scale outlets. The target of the proportion of the company’s revenue inside and outside the province in the 14th five year plan is 50-50. At present, it is mainly a big business model outside the province. The market around Anhui performs well, the momentum in Jiangsu and Hebei is good, and the market performance in Henan is outstanding. In recent years, the company has proposed to rebuild a new Anhui market in Henan market and improve the product structure.
Profit forecast
At present, there is a pattern of one super and many strong enterprises in Anhui Province. As the leader of Hui liquor, the company will continue to harvest the shares of other small and medium-sized liquor enterprises in Anhui Province. At present, the consumption in the province is upgraded from 80-120 yuan to more than 200 yuan. The company mainly promotes GU20 to stand firm in the price band of 500 yuan, leading the consumption upgrading of Hui liquor. We continue to be optimistic about the continuous promotion of the company’s sub high-end + nationalization strategy. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.51/5.68/7.05 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 58 / 46 / 37 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” investment rating.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic downside risks, epidemic drag on consumption, lower than expected growth of gu8 and above, lower than expected growth of Yellow Crane Tower, lower than expected expansion outside the province, etc.
