S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (002352)
Event: the company released the operating data for November: the total revenue in November was 25.856 billion yuan, yoy + 68.19%, which was caused by the merger of Kerry Logistics. Among them, the express business achieved a revenue of 16.245 billion yuan, yoy + 15.43%; Completed business volume of 1.027 billion pieces, yoy + 13.86%; Single ticket income is 15.82 yuan, yoy + 1.41%; The supply chain business realized a revenue of 9.611 billion yuan, yoy + 639.31%. From January to November, the company achieved a total revenue of 181.571 billion yuan, yoy + 33.37%. Among them, the express business achieved a revenue of 154.359 billion yuan, yoy + 18.83%; Completed 9.596 billion pieces of business, yoy + 32.05%; Due to the increase in the proportion of preferential e-commerce parts, the single ticket revenue decreased by 10% year-on-year to 16.09 yuan; The supply chain business achieved a revenue of 27.202 billion yuan, yoy + 336.21%.
Single ticket price increased positively year-on-year: in November, the single ticket revenue of express business achieved positive year-on-year growth after rising month on month for several consecutive months. The single ticket revenue reached 15.82 yuan / ticket, with a year-on-year increase of 1.41%, which is the first positive growth since June 2019. Benefiting from the inflection point of policy supervision, the industry price war has temporarily come to an end, and the single ticket price of head enterprises has been stabilizing and rising obviously. Since the second quarter, SF has continuously improved product stratification, formulated targeted market strategies, optimized product structure and improved product pricing ability. It is expected that the single ticket price is expected to continue to increase.
The growth of business volume slowed down: in November, the company completed 1.027 billion express business, a year-on-year increase of 13.86%, slightly lower than that of the industry. The business volume of the whole industry was 11.33 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. Compared with the previous period, the industry is entering a stable growth stage. Considering that the market’s requirements for express logistics service quality will continue to improve in the future, and the demand for differentiated products will give rise to greater incremental space, the company has leading brand advantages and service quality, its products meet the diversified needs of the market, and is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the trend of competing for quality in the industry.
With the expansion of the scale of all cargo aircraft, the advantages of air transport capacity are prominent: the company has a fleet of 68 aircraft, which will greatly improve the company’s air logistics operation efficiency, help the company expand its business scale and consolidate the leading advantage of air transport capacity. In November, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) completed a fixed increase of 20 billion, of which 4 billion is planned to be used for the new Ezhou Airport Transfer Center project. In the future, Ezhou airport will be put into operation, which will expand the company’s air routes covering the whole country and radiating the world, and build a high-end comprehensive logistics service capacity.
Profit forecast: the price war tends to slow down in the peak season, the pricing ability is improved under the adjustment of product structure, and the superposition cost control and four networks financing are gradually promoted, which will help the company consolidate its operation chassis, consolidate its existing competitive advantage, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to improve. It is estimated that the net profits of 4.3 billion yuan and 6.4 billion yuan will be realized in 2021 and 2022, yoy respectively – 41% and + 48%, EPS is 0.87 yuan and 1.3 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current a share price is 72 times and 48 times respectively. Investment suggestions for interval operation are given.
Risk tips: business growth slows down, price competition is fierce, new business development is less than expected, and the production of Ezhou airport is less than expected
