Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233)
Conclusions and recommendations:
Event: according to the operating data released by Yuantong in November, the company completed 1.745 billion business pieces, a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, realized express revenue of 4.512 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.35%, and single ticket revenue of 2.59 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.33%. From January to November, the company completed a total business volume of 14.96 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 34.07%, achieved a total revenue of 33.552 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.76%, and a single ticket revenue of 2.24 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.98%, which was significantly narrowed.
The single ticket price increased year-on-year and month on month: with the slowdown of the price war, the company's unit price continued to improve. The latest data released in November showed that the single ticket income was 2.59 yuan, It increased by 0.29 yuan (+ 12.33%) year-on-year and 0.3 yuan month on month (+ 12.93%), this is the company's single ticket price has rebounded for four consecutive months, and the month on month price increase is in line with our expectations, with a significant increase compared with the month on month price of 0.16 yuan in 2019 and 2020, and the price has stabilized and rebounded obviously. According to the industry practice, the price increase in peak season and strict policy supervision, the express unit price is expected to continue to rise moderately, driving the significant improvement of the company's profitability.
Business growth slowed down slightly: from the perspective of express delivery volume, the company completed 1.745 billion pieces of business in November, a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, and the growth rate decreased by 6.04 PCT compared with October, Mainly due to the high base period last year (42.5%) and the sluggish growth of e-commerce consumption. The data show that the growth rate of tmall during the double 11 was only 8.45%, and JD increased by 28.6% year-on-year, lower than 32.8% in 2020. However, from the penetration data of online shopping, the online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 31.9% of social zero in November, with a year-on-year increase of 1PCT and a chain increase of 7.3pct. With the upgrading of consumption in the sinking market and the rise of content e-commerce and community group shopping, online shopping has become more and more popular The purchase penetration rate will continue to improve, and express is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth.
Efficiency improvement of intelligent equipment: in November, the company's market share was 15.4%, only decreased by 0.4pct under the year-on-year increase of unit price, indicating that after two years of internal reform, Upgrade network capacity through expansion (its own transfer center, machinery and equipment, trunk transport vehicles, it system) and air transport capacity have greatly improved the timeliness and service quality. At the same time, 36 assessment items have been adjusted, and the assessment items such as upgrading complaints, false signing and timely collection of outlets have been reduced and optimized, so as to continuously reduce the burden for express outlets, and promote the improvement of business volume and operation efficiency.
Profit forecast: under the background of strengthened policy supervision and the industry peak season effect, the bottom of the price is determined. With the upward movement of the price center, the profitability of the company is expected to continue to improve. We have raised the profit forecast for 2022, and it is expected to achieve net profits of 1.56 billion yuan and 2.019 billion yuan (original 1.784 billion yuan) in 21 and 22 years respectively, yoy is - 12%, yoy + 29% and EPS is 0.45 and 0.59 yuan respectively. At present, the corresponding P / e of A-share price is 38 times and 29 times, maintaining the buying investment proposal.
Risk tips: market competition intensifies, cost reduction and efficiency increase are less than expected, and the online stores of franchisees are unstable.
