Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) (600237)
Key investment points
Recommended logic: 1) Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) has been deeply engaged in the film capacitor industry for more than 40 years and has profound technical accumulation. Tongling state owned assets holding houding innovation, the company's business is fully focused on the field of new energy, and its profitability is significantly improved; 2) BOPP capacitor film has a cycle of ten years, and there has been little new production capacity in China in the past five years. With the explosive growth of the downstream new energy vehicle industry, ultra-thin BOPP film is in short supply and the price is bullish, which will bring greater performance flexibility to the company. 3) The capacitor expansion project of the new company fully focuses on the fields of new energy vehicles, wind and solar energy storage and flexible DC transmission. The operation of new projects is expected to promote revenue growth and profitability.
The old film capacitor production enterprise, owned by state-owned assets, ushered in a new life. Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) is an old film capacitor manufacturer with the advantages of capacitor film metallized film film film capacitor integrated industrial chain and profound technical accumulation. In November 2020, the actual controller of the company was changed to the Management Committee of Tongling high tech Zone. After being controlled by new shareholders, the board of directors was reorganized, a new management team was appointed, 600 million capital expenditure was planned, and the downstream new energy market was fully focused. Relevant reform measures have achieved initial results: in the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 740 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 33.24 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 531.4%.
The downstream of new energy is booming, and thin film capacitors usher in new growth. New energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power and energy storage will become the fastest-growing segment of thin film capacitors in the future. In 2020, the total market space of thin-film capacitors in the above markets will be 3.04 billion yuan. It is expected to reach 11.5 billion yuan in 2025, with CAGR of about 30.5%, and drive the growth rate of thin-film capacitor industry to a new level: it is expected that the global thin-film capacitor market will reach 26.3 billion yuan in 2025, with CAGR of about 12.4% in five years.
The new capacitor project fully focuses on new energy, the product structure is improved, and the profit is expected to increase. In the capacitor revenue structure of the company, AC capacitors account for a relatively high proportion, and the gross profit margin is lower than that of peers. The company plans to establish a joint venture with South Korea Chengmen electronics to invest in the construction of 1 million thin film capacitors for filtering of new energy vehicles. After all of them are completed, it is expected to contribute 510 ~ 520 million yuan of revenue, an increase of more than 140% over the capacitor revenue in 2020. Wind energy storage, new energy vehicles and flexible direct transmission industries have fast growth, high entry barriers and stronger product profitability. With the increase of the sales proportion of the new energy industry, the gross profit margin of the company's thin film capacitor business also has room for improvement.
Ultra thin BOPP film is in short supply, and actively expand production. It is hoped that both volume and price will rise. The demand for BOPP film of 3um and below brought by new energy vehicles will be about 8000 tons in 2021 and will increase to 23000 tons in 2025; The demand for 3 ~ 5umbopp film corresponding to Fengguang storage will be about 10000 tons in 2021 and will increase to 19000 tons in 2025. The key equipment of ultra-thin BOPP film depends on imports, and the production expansion cycle is as long as 2-3 years. New production capacity will be put into operation in 2023. It is expected that the supply and demand gap of ultra-thin capacitor film will continue to widen, and the price of ultra-thin film of 3um and below is bullish. The first ultra-thin production line of Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) is expected to be put into operation in 2023. Not only is the volume and price of the film business expected to rise, but also the film capacitor market can be expanded by virtue of the advantages of self-produced film.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company's new energy related capacitor projects will be put into operation successively from 2022, and the revenue and profitability will continue to improve. Considering that the price rise of ultra-thin BOPP capacitor film may exceed expectations, the company has the advantage of film self supply, and vigorously layout high growth tracks such as new energy vehicles, wind solar storage and flexible direct transmission. In the next three years, the compound growth rate of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 73%, giving the company a valuation of 70 times in 2022 (PEG is 0.96), corresponding to the target price of RMB 12.60, and a "buy" rating for the first coverage.
Risk tip: the price rise of the film is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The commissioning progress of new projects lags behind; Customer expansion was less than expected.
