Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) (600160)
Equipped with an integrated industrial chain, the downstream fluorochemical industry has fully benefited: Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) after more than 20 years of development, it has gradually transformed from a basic chemical industry enterprise to a leading enterprise in China's fluorochemical industry. The company is equipped with a complete " Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co.Ltd(600618) - refrigerant" industrial chain. Starting from the procurement of industrial salt, methanol, calcium carbide and other raw materials, the company can realize liquid chlorine, dichloromethane, trichloroethylene, tetrachloroethylene The independent production process of third-generation refrigerants, fluoropolymers, fluorine fine compounds and other products, in which the production capacity of fluorine chemical raw materials such as trichloroethylene, tetrachloroethylene and methane chloride is firmly at the forefront of the world, which is enough to meet the raw material demand in the field of fluorine chemical industry. A high degree of integration is conducive to the rise in raw material price, low demand and In a variety of complex markets such as price competition and incentive, maintaining a high operating rate and shipping efficiency and great cost advantage will also help the company continuously consolidate its leading position and bring more considerable profit space.
The inflection point of the refrigerant industry has come. After the rise of chloride, the cost advantage of the company is more prominent: Based on the current transition of China's refrigerant industry from the second generation to the third generation and the difficulty of large-scale application of the fourth generation refrigerant in the short term, the share of the third generation refrigerant is expected to increase steadily in recent years. Now the "cold winter" of the industry has passed, and the price and price difference of the three generations of refrigerants have been significantly repaired since the third quarter of 2021 under the multiple factors of cost side, demand side and supply side. The rising price of raw material chloride is the main reason for the rising price of refrigerant in this round. According to our calculation, take R125 as an example, Year to date According to the average price of (12.7), the company's raw material cost is only 16646.19 yuan / ton, which is far lower than 25165.68 yuan / ton of general raw material outsourcing enterprises. The cost advantage becomes more and more obvious with the rise of chloride price. Scale and cost are the two most important advantages of the company in the competition for quota. As a leader of the third generation refrigerant, the performance will naturally change gradually with the rise of refrigerant price and price difference In the future, with the improvement of the quota management and industry concentration of the three generations of refrigerants, the company's market share and main business performance are expected to upgrade again
Fluoropolymer is about to be put into production and fully enjoy the upward cycle of products: the price of PVDF has risen rapidly since the second quarter of this year. The company increased its production capacity from 2500 t / A to 3500 T / A in September, and has enjoyed the dividend of price rise this year. The remaining 6500 T / a will be put into production in the first half of next year. From the perspective of demand and capacity growth of the whole industry, PVDF is still in a tight balance between supply and demand for the whole year next year. Combined with the downstream demand, the company has always maintained a high tolerance for product prices. The company's new capacity will continue to maintain a high operating rate and product prices will remain high. The company's PTFE production capacity will double by the end of this year, while the company's own R22 and TFE production capacity will still be sufficient to cover the production demand of 40000 tons of PTFE per year in the future, and the cost advantage and profit margin are still considerable. On the whole, fluoropolymers undertake upstream refrigerants, and the industry cycle changes are highly consistent with the refrigerant industry. In the future, it is expected to be closely related to the inflection point of the refrigerant industry, so as to create stable and considerable profits for the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: combined with our judgment on the future price trend of fluorine refrigerants and fluoropolymers, we predict that the operating revenue of the company's existing main business will be RMB 188.55/217.48/24384 billion and EPS will be RMB 0.30/0.48/0.72 respectively from 2021 to 2023, The corresponding P / E is 44.29/27.46/18.23 respectively (corresponding to the closing price of 13.09 yuan on December 14). It is covered for the first time and rated as "buy".
Risk factors: the production and sales of refrigerants are lower than the expected risk, the downstream demand and export demand of products are lower than the expected risk, the refrigerant price is lower than the expected risk, the export demand of fluorochemical products is lower than the expected risk, and the production and R & D Progress of fluoropolymer project is lower than the expected risk.
