Event: A-share express company disclosed its operating data in November 2021.
Macroeconomic pressure, online shopping penetration is still improving. In November 2021, the express industry completed 11.33 billion pieces of express business (+ 16.5%), due to the high growth in November 2020, the two-year compound growth rate of 26.2% based on 19 years, and the industry demand still maintained a prosperous trend. From January to November, the cumulative express business volume of the whole industry reached 98.05 billion pieces, and the number of express pieces has exceeded 100 billion pieces according to the statistics of the post office. In November 2021, China's total social retail sales increased by 3.9% year-on-year, up 1.5% month on month, and the online retail sales of physical goods reached 1.3 trillion Yuan, an increase of 7.4% over the same period in 2020. Affected by the high base in 2020, the year-on-year growth rate in 21 years decreased slightly (- 1.3pp) compared with October. The online shopping penetration rate of physical goods was 31.9% in the current month, and the online shopping penetration rate increased by 1.1pp compared with October. Despite the macroeconomic pressure, the online shopping peak season still increased significantly.
Volume: the number of pieces per month exceeds 10 billion, and the share of Shunfeng city has stopped falling and rebounded since August. In November, the express industry completed 11.33 billion express business, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. In terms of listed companies, in November, Shunfeng, Yunda, Shentong and Yuantong completed 1.03, 1.88, 1.18 and 1.75 billion pieces respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.9%, 19.0%, 16.7% and 13.4% respectively. The growth rate of Yunda and Shentong exceeded the growth rate of the industry. The share of Shunfeng city increased to 9.1% compared with October, and the share of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong decreased compared with October, 16.6%, 15.4% and 10.4% respectively.
Price: the unit price in Yiwu increased, the unit price of A-share express companies increased positively year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of Yuantong exceeded 10%. In November, the average unit price of National Express was 9.49 yuan, Year on year decrease of 0.37 yuan (- 3.8%). In November, the average unit price of express delivery in the eastern and central regions decreased by 3.9% and 10.1% respectively year-on-year, and the average unit price of express delivery in the western region increased by 10.0% year-on-year; in terms of classification, the same city, different places and international changed by - 9.7%, - 7.7% and + 1.5% respectively year-on-year. Compared with the year-on-year change in October, the decline in the unit price of express delivery in the same city and different places narrowed. From the main grain producing areas, the unit price of Yiwu region The unit price of express delivery was 3.31 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.0% and a month on month increase of + 12.5%.
In terms of listed companies, Yunda's single ticket income in November was 2.38 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.7% and a month on month increase of + 9.7%; The single ticket income of Shentong was 2.46 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.9% and a month on month increase of + 16.6%; Yuantong's single ticket income was 2.59 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.3% and a month on month increase of + 13.1%; SF's single ticket revenue was 15.82 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.4% and a month on month increase of - 0.6%.
Concentration: in November 2021, CR8 of express industry was 80.7%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7pp and a month on month decrease of 0.1pp.
Investment suggestion: price increase in peak season and policy resonance continue to be verified. In terms of Q3 performance, the profits of A-share listed companies hit the bottom, and the deduction of non net profits of some companies increased month on month, confirming the bottom of profits of listed companies. Under regulatory catalysis, Valuation reconstruction of e-commerce express industry: industry from competition to muscle The valuation system under (capital) competition → the valuation system under competitive operation. The industry has gone out of the most pessimistic state of valuation only for the leading Zhongtong, bringing the valuation repair of longeryunda and longsanyuantong. The supply side price war has been alleviated, the superposition has been gradually realized, the industry integration has accelerated, and the industry development chain is: policy bottom → unit price bottom → profit bottom. We maintain the 2021h2 express investment strategy The report is fully optimistic about the rebound of franchise express. The price data of the express industry in November proved that the price war in the industry continued to ease, the profits of the industrial chain increased, and the cost caused by the superposition of the scale benefits of the industry itself continued to decrease (taking a comprehensive view of the comparable caliber of Tong, Yunda and Yuantong, the cost decreased by 6-10% in the next year, i.e. 0.05-0.11 yuan / ticket). The profit repair of the express headquarters will be more obvious in the future.
Recommended object:
1) S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , the periodic low profit brought about by network upgrading and new business expansion has passed. At present, with the company refining product stratification and optimizing the structure of aging parts, Reduce non-profit parts (warehouse filling preferential items / Fengwang) scale. In November, the market share recovered to 9.1%, and ASP increased by 1.4% year-on-year. In the medium term, the cost improvement will be the biggest fundamental aspect in 2022: the four networks financing effect of aging big network, Fengwang, express network and warehouse network will continue to be realized at the gross profit margin. At the same time, the optimization space for fees will be underestimated by the market, significantly increasing the core profit. In the long term, SF will compete for a long time The barriers are still high and the growth space is still large. Under the guidance of industrial policies, the price increase of e-commerce parts will also optimize the competitiveness of SF Express's whole product line. The current market value of 300 billion is strongly recommended.
2) Continue to look at the profit / valuation repair resonance of franchised express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) : the management team is stable, share priority, strong strategic concentration, outstanding fine management level, the profit elasticity in the industry repair stage is the largest, and the Q3 deduction of non net profit is 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, realizing positive growth. In November, ASP increased both month on month, the growth rate of parts exceeded that of the industry, and the profit can be repaired. Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) : in November, ASP increased both month on month, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10%, an increase of 12.3% and a month on month increase of 13.1%. Zhongtong express: absolute longyi, with the strongest scale effect, has a strong and balanced franchise network, abundant production capacity and cash reserves. In 2021q3, the market share increased to 20.8% month on month, significant cost control, and decreased by 4.5% under comparable caliber, showing the leading business dominance.
Risk tip: the growth rate of online shopping is declining, franchisees control risks, and labor costs are rising sharply.
