FuPan 2021: restrain first and then raise, and gradually differentiate. On the whole, the semiconductor index performed stably before May. Benefiting from the continuous performance of high-quality enterprises and the catalysis of chip shortage, the semiconductor index performed brilliantly from May to August, and then the overall performance was volatile. Specifically, in terms of subdivided fields, thanks to the promotion of domestic semiconductor substitution logic, the superimposed performance is well realized. The field of semiconductor equipment and semiconductor materials has gone out of a more bright market during the period. The industries of digital chip design, discrete devices and analog chip design rank next, but all recorded growth. The growth rate of integrated circuit packaging and testing sector is negative, and the performance is relatively weak; From the perspective of individual stocks, it can be summarized as two types of enterprises with outstanding performance: the first is the leading enterprises in popular fields such as semiconductor equipment, IGBT and analog chips with good performance, and the second is the IC Design Enterprises with small initial market value and high performance flexibility that fully benefit from the rise in the price of low-end chips.
Semiconductor: technological change drives industrial development, and the semiconductor industry is still the main line of science and technology investment in the next 3-5 years. From a global perspective, the global semiconductor industry has followed the law of spiral rise in the past few decades, and major technological changes are the internal driving force to promote the sustainable growth of the industry. Automotive intelligence, VraR, aiot and cloud computing will push the semiconductor industry into a new round of rise, WSTS latest forecasts that the global chip market value will reach US $552.9 billion (+ 25.6%) in 2021 and increase to US $601.5 billion in 2022 (+ 8.7%); from the perspective of China, although the event impact increases the uncertainty of China’s semiconductor industry, it also further highlights the necessity and urgency of independent control of China’s semiconductor industry chain. The main logic of China’s semiconductor industry development is independent control, and the logic of China’s semiconductor industry development has not changed at present (domestic substitution, industrial trend, policy funds), the semiconductor industry is still the main line of science and technology investment in the next 3-5 years.
Two main investment lines of semiconductor industry in 2022: Automotive semiconductor, semiconductor equipment and materials. The upstream and downstream of the semiconductor industry chain is very long, involving many companies. We believe that the subsequent semiconductor sector will show a differentiation trend, and the semiconductor segment leaders with strong performance cashing ability, good industrial trend and excellent competition pattern will lead the semiconductor sector to continue to rise. The main line of next year’s semiconductor investment can be analyzed from two perspectives: from the perspective of the development trend of terminal applications, the current automotive industry is in an era of great change, the development of automotive electrification, intelligence and networking is the general trend, and automotive semiconductors are at the intersection of automobiles and semiconductors, which is expected to stand on the historical process and usher in historic development opportunities; From the perspective of independent control, the equipment and materials upstream of semiconductors are the basis for the development of the semiconductor industry. It is particularly important to realize independent control in the field of semiconductor equipment and materials. At present, a number of leading semiconductor equipment and materials companies with excellent quality have emerged in China, We believe that China’s leader in the subdivided field of semiconductor equipment and materials is expected to seize the opportunity of domestic substitution for gold and realize rapid rise.
Risk tips: (1) the deterioration of the epidemic situation leads to the weakening of terminal demand, which affects the lower than expected semiconductor demand; (2) the capacity expansion progress of China’s major wafer factories is lower than expected; (3) the customer verification and import are lower than expected, resulting in the lower than expected domestic substitution process; (4) the R & D Progress of key semiconductor technologies is lower than expected; (5) The deterioration of Sino US relations and the risk of supply interruption of key equipment, components and raw materials; (6) the performance of key recommended enterprises is lower than expected
