Industry tracking (2021.12.11-2021.12.17)
Data from the Bureau of statistics in November: the fundamentals are slowing down, and the policy forces stabilize the expected commercial housing sales: real estate enterprises strengthen sales collection by exchanging price for quantity; It may be affected by the difference in statistical caliber. The year-on-year decline of national commercial housing sales in November was better than the data of top 100 real estate enterprises in the same period. There is still pressure on the current sales in November. With the improvement of mortgage, the policy is expected to form a joint force to stabilize market expectations.
Investment in real estate development: in November, the investment in real estate development was yoy-4.3%, with a growth rate of 1.1pct higher than that in October, and the growth rate of investment in development slowed down; The transaction price is yoy + 24.2%, and the centralized land supply promotes the growth of transaction price; The growth rate of new construction has been repaired, which is mainly affected by the improvement of financing margin and the rhythm of land acquisition and construction; The completed area has rebounded significantly under the protection of development loan, mortgage loan acceleration and strict supervision of pre-sale funds, and is expected to maintain a certain completion boom cycle.
Financing: in November, the growth rate of funds in place by real estate enterprises rebounded, mainly benefiting from the acceleration of Chinese loans and personal mortgage loans to meet the reasonable capital needs of real estate enterprises and home buyers; At the same time, under the pressure of liquidity, real estate enterprises strengthened self financing, and the year-on-year growth rate became positive in a single month. The deposit and advance payment are the only sub indicators of slowing growth in the current month. We believe that the short-term industry sales prosperity in the future is still the most key variable affecting the industry credit and fundamentals.
New houses, second-hand houses and land markets are warmer than last week
The new housing market traded 7.85 million square meters this week, with a rolling year-on-year increase of – 20.65%, an increase of 3.85 PCT compared with last week; The accumulated inventory was 149570000 square meters, the first-line and second-line de urbanization accelerated, and the third-line and below de urbanization slowed down. The second-hand housing market traded 1.36 million square meters this week, with a rolling year-on-year increase of – 35.09%, an increase of 2.54 PCT compared with last week. The land market traded 13.68 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 52.84%; The total turnover was 35.9 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 34.91%; The national average premium rate was + 6.67%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -10.27pct.
This week, Shenwan real estate index was – 0.71%, down 3.00pct from last week, ranking 17 / 28, leading the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.27pct. In terms of H shares, this week’s wind Hong Kong real estate index was – 5.25%, down 8.01pct compared with last week, ranking 8 / 11 higher, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.90pct; The kroney leading index of real estate stocks was – 7.57%, down 10.94pct from last week.
Grasp the improvement of M & A on the left and concentration on the right
Investment suggestions: Recently, the management has made intensive statements to guide the industry towards a more standardized stable and healthy development period in the medium and long term, short-term policy adjustments to alleviate pessimistic sales expectations, affordable rental housing to hedge against the decline of potential development investment, and promote the industry to return to a virtuous circle and healthy development. The future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Suggestions: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang China, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, xinchengyue service, Greentown service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
