Key investment points
The central bank and the cbcirc encourage industry mergers and acquisitions to further mitigate risks
The circular encourages banking financial institutions to steadily and orderly carry out real estate project M & a loan business, and focuses on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to acquire high-quality projects of real estate enterprises with operational risks. In terms of M & a service efficiency, the notice suggests 1) accelerating the M & a loan approval process of key real estate enterprises, 2) starting due diligence and credit investigation in advance, 3) promoting the government to optimize the supervision of pre-sale funds of acquired objects and speed up the handling of property right certificates. In addition, the relevant discussion encouraged large-scale real estate enterprises with risks not to blindly withdraw and cut off loans, so as to dispel the doubts of real estate enterprises and financial institutions and promote the steady and healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry. We believe that encouraging the issuance of M & A loans + encouraging high-quality enterprises to acquire risky real estate enterprises is an important measure to promote the improvement of the industry's financing environment and resolve risks, help to resolve the short-term liquidity risk of the real estate industry and promote the optimization of the industry structure.
The 5-year LPR has not changed, and the demand side is mainly "stable"
On December 20, the central bank lowered the one-year LPR by 5bp to 3.80%, The LPR over 5 years was maintained at 4.65% (unchanged for the 20th consecutive month). The LPR over 5 years is the basis for calculating the mortgage interest rate. From the past interest rate reduction cycle, the interest rate reduction drives the mortgage interest rate down, and it will take about 3-6 months to transmit to the demand for house purchase. We believe that the LPR interest rate over 5 years remains unchanged this time, which reflects that the policy will still maintain the regulation on the demand side of real estate, and the demand side is mainly stable. Combined with some recent changes Local cities have successively introduced house purchase subsidy policies. We believe that the top-down demand side regulation is still in progress, and the local government may make marginal adjustment according to the actual temperature of the market.
Continue to correct the deviation and enhance the confidence in the repair of plate valuation
The policy has been continuously corrected since September, and the correction frequency has accelerated since December. We believe that the industry policy bottom signal is significant, the capital risk is gradually resolved, the sector valuation repair is expected to continue, and continue to be optimistic about high credit enterprises: A-Shares - China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) ; H shares - China Resources Land, China overseas development, Longhu group, Xuhui holding group, country garden, country garden services, poly property, CNOOC property, Xuhui Yongsheng life, etc. After the epidemic situation is alleviated, consumption is expected to rise, and the valuation and repair of commercial property management companies can be expected. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant targets: China Resources Vientiane, Baolong commerce and Xingsheng business management.
Risk statement
The trend of structured credit remains unchanged. During the process of capacity optimization, individual real estate enterprises / property enterprises withdraw from the market.
