Investment advice
Cosmetics: there is no longer a buffer period for the efficacy verification required by the registration and filing of new products in January 22. The brand competition under the new regulations returns to the product power. It is recommended to pay attention to the head brand Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) and Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) in the rising period; It is expected that the large brand OEM will be less affected by the new regulations. At the same time, the demand for functional raw materials will increase and benefit the upstream raw material suppliers Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) .
This week’s view
According to the National Bureau of statistics, China’s retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.9% in November, slowed by 1.0pct compared with October, and the compound growth rate was 4.45% compared with November 19. From January to November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 13.7% at the same time, a compound increase of 4.04% compared with the same period in 19 years.
In November, the retail sales of cosmetics increased by 8.2% at the same time, and the growth rate increased by 1.0 PCT month on month compared with October, with a compound increase of 19.6% compared with the same period in 19 years; From January to November, the retail sales of cosmetics increased by 15.3% at the same time, and a compound increase of 12.4% compared with the same period in 19 years.
In November 21, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 5.7% at the same time, with a compound increase of 14.9% compared with the same period in 19 years; From January to November, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 34.1% and 11.9% respectively compared with the same period in 19 years.
Compared with other optional / mandatory consumer categories, from the perspective of two-year cumulative compound growth rate, the prosperity of cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry industry is in the middle and upper reaches, and the growth rate is second only to sports leisure and cultural office.
Market Review
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index and the CSI 300 fell 0.93%, 1.61% and 1.99% respectively, and the cosmetics sector fell 2.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.74pct, which is located in the middle and lower reaches of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, Guangzhou Ruoyuchen Technology Co.Ltd(003010) , Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) led the increase, Lafang China Co.Ltd(603630) , and Yixian e-commerce led the decline. This week, the diamond jewelry sector fell 2.29%, underperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 0.30pct, which is located in the middle and lower reaches of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, Zhejiang Ming Jewelry Co.Ltd(002574) , Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co.Ltd(605599) , Fujian Ideal Jewellery Industrial Co.Ltd(002740) led the increase, and Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) , Henan Huanghe Whirlwind Co.Ltd(600172) led the decline.
Industry dynamics
Industry news: slmi, the second new imported cosmetic raw material, has been successfully filed; Red myrrh alcohol can still be used normally, and the list of whitening agents will be issued soon; The food and drug administration shall supplement the detailed rules for the transition period of five categories of original special-purpose cosmetics; Freda launched a new business model; Xiaohong banned 29 brands and launched the largest special rectification action in history.
Key announcement: (cosmetics) Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) plans to increase the capital of the wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Milan. Langzi medical management, Xinxian aimi, langzi Hanya and bochen No. 8 plan to invest a total of 150 million yuan to subscribe for the new registered capital of Shenzhen Milan of 30 million yuan, and the remaining 120 million yuan is included in the company’s capital reserve. This transaction constitutes a related party transaction; Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) the controlling shareholder Lushang group has accumulated pledge (after this pledge) 93 million shares, accounting for 9.22% of the total issued share capital of the company. (diamond jewelry) Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) in November, two new direct stores, Chengdu fanyue City Plaza store and Guangzhou Panyu Xindaxin department store counter, were added; Henan Huanghe Whirlwind Co.Ltd(600172) the cumulative Pledged Shares of the controlling shareholder Huanghe group (the pledge and re pledge are postponed) 210 million shares, accounting for 79.92% of the total shares of the company and 14.53% of the total share capital of the company.
Risk statement
The development of new products / marketing / channels is less than expected; Loss of key customers of production / agent operators.
