Event overview:
On December 18, 2021, Weilai held the fifth NiO day in Suzhou. Weilai has released a new medium-sized intelligent electric sedan et5. The starting price before the subsidy is 328000 yuan, and the starting price before the subsidy of battery rental scheme is 258000 yuan. It is expected to be delivered in September 2022. In addition, the press conference also defined the delivery time of et7, which will be locked on January 20, 2022 and delivered on March 28.
Analysis and judgment:
Perfect integration of super running gene appearance, both technology and beauty
The appearance of et5 follows the simple design language of et7, combines elegance and sports, and integrates Weilai's super running gene and the concept of "design for automatic driving". The split lamp group designed by Weilai family is adopted for the lamp, with outstanding recognition. The body design of "shark nose" makes the appearance of the front of the car more sharp, and the line turning between the engine compartment cover and the bumper is sharp. The rear lamp is equipped with illumiblade light front tail lamp and vertical knife tail diffuser to highlight the movement of the whole car.
The daylighting area of the panoramic sky curtain reaches 1.28m2, and the color matching options of the body and interior are more diversified. Weilai et5 is equipped with panoramic glass canopy, and the daylighting area reaches 1.28m2. The body color is increased to 9 and the interior color is increased to 6.
More than 100 intelligent and comfortable configurations occupy the intelligent highland again
The intelligent configuration is upgraded again, equipped with the latest automatic driving technology nad of Weilai. In terms of intelligence, 19 auxiliary driving functions are equipped as standard. Et5 will gradually realize the point-to-point automatic driving experience in high-speed, urban, parking, power change and other scenes through Weilai super sensing system aquala and super computing platform Adam (computing power 1016 tops).
The intelligent cockpit is integrated to create a full sensory immersion experience. The interior continues the concept of "second living room", and the panoramic digital cockpit panocinema with AR / VR technology is applied. Weilai and AR equipment company nreal jointly developed exclusive ar glasses, which can project a large screen with a viewing distance of 6 meters and an equivalent of 201 inches; NiO VR glasses is also developed in cooperation with Nolo. Equipped with ultra-thin pancake optical lens, it can realize binocular 4K display.
The starting price of the battery rental scheme dropped to 258000 yuan
The starting price of baas scheme is down to 258000 yuan, showing a strong cost performance. Before the subsidy, the selling prices of 75kwh and 100kwh battery versions were 328000 yuan and 386000 yuan respectively. Using the battery rental scheme, the selling price of baas decreased to 258000 yuan, corresponding to the battery rental fee of 980 yuan / month and 1480 yuan / month respectively.
Brand strength continuation strategy turns to volume market
250000 yuan is the entry-level and mainstream high-end electrification market of luxury fuel vehicles. Weilai has successfully entered the volume market through price exploration. This price segment not only includes the price downward exploration of luxury brands (BBA entry-level fuel vehicles), the traditional independent focus on high-end brand upgrading (Geely krypton, Byd Company Limited(002594) Han, etc.), but also includes more successful walking electric vehicles such as Tesla Model 3 / Y and new force Xiaopeng P7.
Et5 has obvious strategic advantages in intelligence level and differentiation of main power exchange. Compared with the previous models, et5 is expected to accelerate to the volume drive while undertaking the power of Weilai luxury brand.
1) The intelligent configuration is leading at the same level, and the hardware stacking is rich. Weilai et5 is equipped with 33 high-performance sensing hardware, including 1 ultra long-range high-precision lidar, 7 8-megapixel HD cameras, 4 3-megapixel high-sensitivity special cameras for looking around, 5 millimeter wave radars, etc. Adam supercomputing platform is equipped with 4 NVIDIA drive Orin chips as standard, with a computing power of 1016 tops.
2) Body and chassis materials of the same grade are rare. The materials for et5 body and chassis are lightweight and safe. The torsional stiffness of the ultra-high strength steel aluminum hybrid body reaches the five-star safety standard. The rear subframe adopts the popular integrated die-casting technology, and the front and rear suspensions adopt five connecting rods to ensure the handling and safety of the chassis.
3) The power change mode focuses on differentiation to solve the anxiety of pure electric mileage, and the acceptance of vehicle electricity separation mode is expected to continue to improve. According to the selling price, vehicle purchase + battery rental will lower the selling price by 70000 ~ 128000 yuan at one time, and expand the price range of potential competitors to a huge market of 200000 ~ 400000 yuan. At the same time, the power exchange mode has obvious advantages, especially in application scenarios such as high-speed travel. The layout of power exchange stations in Weilai has been continuously promoted, 733 power exchange stations have been built, and the G50 Shanghai Chongqing high-speed power exchange network has been opened. In the next step, the layout of high-speed power exchange network will continue around five vertical, three horizontal and four metropolitan areas, which is expected to further improve the acceptance of motor vehicle power separation mode.
Compared with competitors, we believe that the steady-state sales volume of et5 is expected to exceed 10000, which is expected to become a benchmark in the medium-sized car market. Referring to competitors at the same level, the average monthly sales volume of Tesla Model 3 / Y in China is currently stable at about 20000 / 22000. Han EV and Xiaopeng P7 are about 7000 and 6400 respectively. In terms of fuel vehicles, the steady-state monthly sales of BMW 3 series, Mercedes Benz C-class and Audi A4 are 14000, 10000 and 9000 respectively. We believe that et5 has a high probability of reaching 10000 monthly sales.
Investment suggestions:
Et5 was officially released, occupying an intelligent highland. The price of baas scheme dropped to 258000 yuan and successfully entered the volume market. We believe that et5 is highly competitive and the steady-state monthly sales is expected to exceed 10000 vehicles.
From January to November this year, the cumulative delivery volume of Weilai reached 81000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 120%. The steady-state monthly sales of ES6, es8 and ec6 were 3400, 2500 and 1600 respectively. The delivery volume increased marginally under the mitigation of core shortage. The total sales volume reached 11000 in November, with a chain comparison of + 197%. Under the mitigation of the margin of core shortage, the delivery of orders on hand is expected to be accelerated. In addition, es8 and ES6 are expected to usher in the replacement in 2023, and Weilai is expected to enter a stronger product cycle. It is estimated that the total delivery volume of es8, ES6 and ec6 models is expected to reach 156000 and 216000 in 2022-2023. Et7 will be delivered in March next year, and the monthly sales center is expected to reach 3000 vehicles. Compared with the existing models, et5 is expected to undertake the Weilai volume market. It is expected that the monthly sales will remain at the level of 10000 + in 2023, which is about the sum of the three cars at this stage. It continues to be optimistic about the development of Weilai industrial chain.
1) Electrification increment: lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ], benefiting target [ Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel Co.Ltd(002085) ]; Interior and exterior decoration [ Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ]; The beneficial object of the whole vehicle [ Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]; Three power system industrial chain [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by the new power group)]; new energy thermal management industrial chain beneficiary targets [ Aotecar New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002239) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]
2) Intelligent increment: intelligent cockpit industry chain [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) *, Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ]; Intelligent driving industry chain: potential beneficiaries [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) ]. ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) and Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively)
Risk statement
The sales volume of new models is lower than expected; The failure to strictly implement laws and regulations such as points and carbon emissions has led to the launch progress of new energy and new models of automobile enterprises not meeting expectations; The impact of chip shortage.
