Report summary:
Last week, the average daily trading volume of A-Shares was 1164188 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 3.03%. As of December 16, 2021, the balance of the two cities and two financial institutions was 1849.964 billion yuan, an increase of 0.41% month on month, an increase of 42.79% over the daily average level in 2020 (1295.603 billion yuan).
Proprietary business: last week, the CSI 300 index fell 1.99%, and the CSI all bond (net price) index rose 0.05%.
As of December 17, 2021, the number of market pledged shares was 426.905 billion, accounting for 5.81% of the total share capital, and the market value of market pledged shares was 4236.911 billion yuan.
The securities industry is still in the policy dividend period
In the important stage of the transformation of China’s economic momentum from old to new, the general direction of increasing the proportion of direct financing remains unchanged. Therefore, as an important intermediary in the capital market, the securities industry is still in the policy dividend period. This is particularly important today when policy orientation and preference have a more and more profound impact on industrial development.
Fundamentals: Wealth Management boosts the profitability of securities companies from multiple perspectives
Securities companies use a more flexible incentive mechanism to promote the market share competition at the sales end and investment consulting end, and have made efforts to study one after another in order to achieve a significant increase in institutional trading commission. In addition, securities companies that participate in and hold large-scale public fund companies have the first mover advantage of the layout of the whole industrial chain.
The right layout of securities companies focuses on three indicators
The brokerage sector has a strong beta attribute, so A-share liquidity, transaction activity and market sentiment will be magnified on the market of the sector. We expect to be in the stage of wide liquidity to wide credit in the next 2-3 quarters. For investors who pay attention to the layout signal on the right side of the securities business sector, they can pay attention to 1) the transaction volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has been enlarged to more than 1.4 trillion yuan, 2) the daily transaction volume of the securities business sector (801193. SI) has been enlarged to 100 billion yuan, and 3) the securities lending scale of listed securities companies has shrunk rapidly.
This month’s view
The brokerage sector is still in the policy dividend window, and the Pb valuation of the current sector is 1.71 times. Despite the poor market continuity after the sharp rise of the securities sector in a single day over the past year, the frequency of changes in the sector shows an intensive trend, and long-term investors can layout on the left. The beneficiaries are GF, Xingye, East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) , Zheshang and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) .
Risk statement
Risk of sharp fluctuation of RMB against US dollar, overseas epidemic and liquidity impact; Decline in transaction activity of a shares, compliance risk of listed companies and shareholder qualification risk of securities companies, attention to shareholder reduction information, lower than expected growth rate of new policy premiums in the insurance industry, and higher than expected fluctuation risk of interest rates.
