Key investment points
Industry Review
In 2021, the prosperity of the household appliance industry weakened and entered the valuation adjustment stage. In 2021, the market scale of the home appliance industry decreased, the recovery of traditional categories was slow, the high-end products accelerated, and the characteristics of intelligence, scene and system appeared. The decline of industry prosperity is mainly due to the following reasons: first, the continuous rise of raw material prices and the shortage of chips, enterprises raise the terminal price to hedge costs, resulting in the delay of consumer demand and obvious volume scissors difference; Second, the local recurrence of the epidemic has led to the recovery of offline physical stores not meeting expectations; (III) low supply chain efficiency, soaring shipping prices and rising logistics costs, resulting in increased pressure on export business; In addition, the double limit policy of large manufacturing province also forms a certain pressure on the operation of small and medium-sized household appliance enterprises.
Looking forward to 2022
The marginal improvement of external factors promotes the recovery of the industry: 1) the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of overseas factories are important factors to solve the export of household appliances. Looking forward to 2022, with the increase of vaccination rate and the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the supply chain will gradually recover, and the port congestion and overseas logistics turnover efficiency are expected to improve. 2) In 2021, some white power enterprises actively responded to the rise in raw material prices by raising prices, upgrading product structure, improving efficiency and reducing fees. At present, the price of upstream raw materials has fallen to varying degrees. Considering the price stickiness, it is expected to thicken the performance of household appliance enterprises. In the fourth quarter, the supply-demand relationship of LCD panel has eased significantly, the trend of industry share concentrating on CR3 remains unchanged, and the continuous optimization of industry structure will make the fluctuation of product price more smooth. 3) The people's Bank of China lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, the real estate policy released positive signals, and the pessimism is expected to ease. It is expected that in 2022, under the background of slightly loose real estate policies, the tight liquidity of developers will be alleviated, the completion progress will be accelerated, the margin of residential mortgage loans will pick up, the willingness of buyers will increase, and the sales month on month is expected to improve.
Endogenous power promotes the upgrading of industry product structure: 1) the trend of diversified channels of household appliances is obvious, online traditional channels are diverted, and emerging channels rise rapidly; Offline emphasis on high-end intelligent scenarios, pre positioning of channels and positive channel sinking of home appliance enterprises and retailers. 2) In recent years, consumers' expected prices for high-end household appliances have increased, and their price sensitivity has been declining. The industry has entered a mature period, and the upgrading of product form and deep cultivation of market segments are the main forms of high-end household appliances. 3) The overall penetration rate of clean household appliances market is low, the gross profit margin of products is high, and the moat of products is high. Local brands have more advantages in interpreting China's family life scene mode. The change of consumer structure and the high replacement frequency of clean household appliances have brought new and updated demand to the industry. 4) The prosperity of integrated products continues. From the perspective of market penetration, the proportion of integrated stove products in the smoke stove market increases year by year, but the penetration rate is still at a low level. The integrated dishwasher can not only be matched with the cabinet, but also can be combined with the traditional kitchen electricity, and even the transformation of the old kitchen. The development prospect of the industry is broad.
Investment suggestions:
Main line 1: it is suggested to focus on leading enterprises with high-end intelligent market leading ability, perfect supply chain system, global operation, effective corporate governance mechanism and incentive mechanism, and good long-term investment value: Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) .
Main line 2: it is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of subdivided tracks with low market penetration and imaginary development space: Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) .
Main line 3: it is suggested to pay attention to the traditional subdivided industry leading companies that actively expand the new track and deeply tap the advantages of traditional categories: Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) .
Risk tips: 1) sluggish consumer demand outside China; 2) The duration of covid-19 epidemic exceeded market expectations; 3) The recovery of the real estate industry was lower than expected; 4) The price of raw materials has returned to a high level.
