Overall performance of Continental Hotels in November: RevPAR only recovered 60% in the same period of 19 years. Affected by the repeated epidemic, the operation of the hotel industry has been disturbed again. In November 21, the occupancy rate of Chinese mainland hotels was 45.8%, which was 16.4pct lower than that in November 20, and decreased by 21.87pct compared with 19 in November. The average house price was 399 yuan / night, a decrease of 1.8% compared with November 20, and recovered to 87.2% in the same period of 19 years. RevPAR is 183 yuan / room night. Due to the year-on-year decline in the rental rate and average house price, RevPAR is 27.6% lower than that in November 20 and restored to 59% in the same period of 19 years.
Overall performance of medium and high-end hotels in mainland China in November: the recovery is not as good as the overall level. In November 21, the occupancy rate of high-end hotels in Chinese mainland was 44.7%, slightly lower than the overall average level, which was 16.9pct lower than that in November 20, and decreased by 22.0pct compared with 19 in November. The average house price of 325 yuan / night decreased by 3.2% compared with November 20, and recovered to 80.4% in the same period of 19 years, which was lower than the overall average level compared with 19 years. RevPAR is 146 yuan / room night. Due to the year-on-year decrease in occupancy rate and hotel unit price, RevPAR is 31.3% lower than that in November 20 and restored to 53.9% in the same period of 19 years.
Summary: the fluctuation of the operation data of the mainland hotel industry in 21 years is still highly related to the spread and recurrence of the epidemic, and the overall RevPAR recovered to more than 80% from April to July; On July 20, the epidemic situation in Nanjing repeatedly caused a sharp decline in the rental rate and average house price. The RevPAR in August was only 47% of that in the same period of 19 years. In September, with the epidemic situation under control, it recovered significantly month on month, reaching nearly 80% in the same period of 19 years; The epidemic situation repeated again. In October, it still benefited from the driving effect of the National Day golden week, and RevPAR only recovered to 60% in November. The RevPAR recovery of medium and high-end hotels is still not as good as the whole, which is mainly reflected in that the recovery of average house prices is weaker than the overall average level.
Investment suggestion: the hotel performance in the past 21 years is still greatly affected by the spread of the epidemic, but the overall supply and demand pattern is good, mainly reflected in the clearing of supply. It can be seen that in the months with few outbreaks from April to July, RevPAR has recovered to more than 80% in the same period of 19 years. From the three quarterly reports of Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , it can also be seen that RevPAR has exceeded the level in the same period of 19 years in the week before July 20, indicating strong demand; With the impact of the epidemic on the supply of the hotel industry (especially single hotels), the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to improve. It has medium and long-term investment logic, including the improvement of supply and demand pattern, the opportunity of rapid store expansion brought by the improvement of chain rate, structural optimization, etc. it is suggested to focus on Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) .
Risk factors: the impact of repeated epidemic on the tourism industry and the impact of macro-economy on the tourism industry.
