Industrial added value and real estate data pick up, and metal prices are expected to pick up
This week, the Bureau of statistics released relevant economic data for November. In November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. Investment in real estate development increased by 6.0%. The national commercial housing sales area was 158.131 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The industrial and real estate data recovered. Combined with the core spirit of the recently released central economic conference next year, the industrial metal price is expected to be boosted in the short term. LME copper fell – 0.08% this week to close at US $9446 / ton; LME aluminum rose 4.69% to close at USD 2734 / ton; Lead rose 0.41% to close at US $2304 / ton; Zinc rose 2.45% to close at USD 3381 / ton; Tin fell – 2.04% to close at US $38420 / ton; Nickel fell – 1.08% to close at US $19620 / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) .
China Automobile Association announced the expected sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022, and the price of lithium carbonate increased significantly
This week, the China Automobile Industry Association announced the sales forecast of new energy vehicles in 2022. The China Automobile Association expects the sales of new energy vehicles to be 5 million next year, with a year-on-year increase of 47%. Next year, the demand of new energy vehicles for lithium carbonate will be significantly driven. Superimposed on the recent decline in lithium salt production capacity in Qinghai, the short-term lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong. Industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 9.76% to close at 225000 yuan / ton this week; Battery grade lithium carbonate rose 9.30% to close at 235000 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) .
Narrow fluctuations in copper prices this week may affect the downstream copper processing capacity
Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell – 0.19% to close at 69280 yuan / ton this week; Aluminum rose 3.48% to close at 19485 yuan / ton. The inventory of the industry is still at an all-time low, and the rhythm of accumulating inventory is weak. The Yangtze River Delta is a key processing area of the copper industry. Affected by the recent epidemic, the production capacity of copper downstream processing enterprises may be affected. Meanwhile, the epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia has affected the supply of copper concentrate in the north and the downstream copper smelting and processing fee. Recommended concerns: Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) , Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials And Technology Co.Ltd(002171) etc.
The Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to cash in, and the gold price rises slightly
This week, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its interest rate meeting in December. From January next year, the monthly bond purchase will be further reduced by $30 billion, and the interest rate increase is expected to be fulfilled. This week, spot gold in London rose 1.57% to close at US $1807.7/oz, and the US dollar index rose 0.65% to close at 96.68; COMEX gold rose 0.93% to close at US $1804.90/oz this week, while Comex Silver Rose 0.92% to close at US $22.53/oz. We expect that with the official arrival of the interest rate increase process, there will be great upward pressure on gold, superimposed with epidemic factors, and the gold price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range.
Risk tip: the Fed’s policy changes more than expected, the global economic recovery is less than the expected risk, and the supply side constraint policy turns.
