Recently, the National Medical Security Bureau issued the notice on printing and distributing the three-year action plan for DRG / Dip payment reform. It is clear that by the end of 2025, DRG / Dip payment will cover all qualified medical institutions carrying out inpatient services, and basically realize the full coverage of diseases and medical insurance funds. According to the planning requirements, the next three years will be the peak period of the construction of relevant systems of the medical insurance bureau, the health commission and the hospital. According to the estimation of procurement network data, the unit price of DRG / dip information system project at the secondary hospital end is about 2 million yuan, that at the tertiary hospital end is about 4 million yuan, that at the medical insurance bureau end is about 4 million yuan, and that at the health commission end is about 3 million yuan. Therefore, the incremental market scale brought by DRG / Dip construction exceeds 30 billion yuan. Based on the three-year construction period of 22-24 years, the average annual market increment exceeds 10 billion yuan.
Medical insurance and IT companies will benefit, and China Reform Health Management And Services Group Co.Ltd(000503) flexibility is considerable. As a leading digital medical insurance company controlled by central enterprises, the company has a leading market share in the intelligent audit market of traditional medical insurance funds, with a share of more than 50%. Meanwhile, in recent years, the company has been actively engaged in R & D and arranged DRG / Dip medical insurance payment innovation business in advance. In the DRG pilot in the 13th Five Year Plan period, the company took the lead in implementing the chs-drg scheme of the national medical insurance bureau and gained a large share in the local market. In addition, the company has provided dip services to more than 10 pilot cities across the country to quickly expand the dip market. With the accelerated implementation of DRG / Dip payment in the next three years, the company is expected to obtain a large share by virtue of the channel advantages accumulated in the medical insurance fund audit market and the product and technical experience accumulated in the DRG pilot market. The scale of the company’s traditional business income is small and the future income elasticity is considerable.
The growth certainty of network security sector is high. Network security expenditure is a relatively rigid expenditure of the government and large enterprises. This sector has always been the one with high growth certainty among the computer segments, The historical compound growth rate is close to 20% (leading faster). Over the past 20 years, the overall revenue of the sector has maintained growth under the background of tight government finance and repeated epidemic situations. Looking forward to 22 years, with the stable epidemic situation, the recovery of economic growth and the promotion of new policies such as data security, the sector is expected to return to high-speed growth.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the security industry oriented planning and data security law and other policies continued to be implemented to promote the development of the sector. On 12 July, The Ministry of industry and information technology publicly solicited opinions on the three-year action plan for high-quality development of network security industry (2021-2023) (Draft for comments). This “plan” is the first landing plan for the “14th five year plan” in the field of network security, which defines the investment scale of network security in the next few years, which is of great significance. On June 10, the data security law It was voted and will come into force on September 1, 2021. The data security law fills the gap in data security protection legislation, defines the responsibilities of all parties and forms a restriction mechanism. The continuous implementation of the above policies is expected to promote the emergence of new growth poles in the sector.
The valuation of the plate is low and the safety cushion is high. The overall valuation of the computer sector is high, and there is still the risk of killing the valuation under the background of uncertain growth next year. However, the overall valuation of the network security sector in the computer sub sector is low. Especially in the past 21 years, the sector has experienced a round of killing valuation. At present, PS in 21 years, such as Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) , has fallen to more than 10 times, Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) , Venustech Group Inc(002439) In 21 years such as Nsfocus Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300369) , PE has been reduced to about 30 times, and the overall safety is high. Pay attention to the poor expectation of 360 Security Technology Inc(601360) . 360 Security Technology Inc(601360) previously, it was mainly engaged in C-end security and Internet business, and there was less security business layout at b-end. However, in the past 20 years, the company officially established the government enterprise security business department to develop the government enterprise security business. As of 630 this year, the company’s government enterprise security business department has more than 3500 personnel and has formed a comprehensive software solution. The company uses the “security brain” as the starting point to solve the security needs of government enterprise customers in a one-stop way. There are sufficient orders on hand. Looking forward to next year, it is expected to rise suddenly in the government enterprise security market. Investment suggestion: DRG / Dip construction involves three parties: Medical Insurance Bureau, Health Commission and hospital. Leading medical and medical insurance IT companies also make layout in this field. It is recommended that medical it related targets: China Reform Health Management And Services Group Co.Ltd(000503) , Winning Health Technology Group Co.Ltd(300253) , B-Soft Co.Ltd(300451) , Sichuan Jiuyuan Yinhai Software Co.Ltd(002777) . In terms of network security, pay attention to 360 Security Technology Inc(601360) with poor expectations and network security leaders Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) , Nsfocus Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300369) , Venustech Group Inc(002439) , Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) , Zhongfu Information Inc(300659) .
Risk tip: the policy promotion is not as expected.
