Industry Review & prediction: in the first quarter of this year, due to the continuation of sales heat and the low base of epidemic in the same period last year, it increased significantly year-on-year. Since the second quarter, especially in Southeast Asia, affected by the poor chip supply caused by the epidemic, the sales of passenger cars of many brands have fallen sharply. Combined with the rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the gross profit margin of car enterprises is low. Car sales have improved since the fourth quarter, with a continuous increase month on month, but they have not turned positive year-on-year.
We believe that in the short term, problems such as chip supply have brought some downward pressure to the industry, but there are signs of improvement, and the overall good trend of the industry will remain unchanged in 2022. In addition, the main trend of the future automobile market is localization and substitution, as well as the development trend of electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing. We should focus on the new energy automobile market.
The passenger car market as a whole tends to pick up, focusing on structural investment opportunities in market segments. Although the passenger car market is facing some downward pressure, the overall good trend will remain unchanged next year. In the follow-up, we are optimistic about the independent brand passenger car segment market under the recovery of luxury cars and the trend of high-end, as well as the structural opportunities of car, SUV and other segment markets. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality brands, novel appearance design and perfect model matrix, and actively layout the intelligent Vehicle manufacturer in the field of electrification.
The overseas new energy bus market has great development prospects. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of the whole bus. Travel demand, policy orientation and China's urbanization rate are rising. The overdraft of policies and subsidies has bottomed out the demand for passenger cars. The demand is expected to further improve in the future. The process of passenger car electrification will continue to be promoted. After the follow-up epidemic, Chinese passenger car enterprises occupy the overseas new energy passenger car market and have a large growth space.
The performance of heavy trucks was sluggish in the second half of the year, and the national six standards gave birth to new opportunities. In the context of the continued downturn in infrastructure and real estate, China's truck market will be at a low level. It is suggested to pay attention to the head enterprises of light and micro trucks and enterprises with sufficient technical reserves and benefits under the national six standards.
New energy has strong long-term certainty and focuses on core parts with leading technology. The promotion of subsidy policy, double credit policy, online car Hailing to power transfer, traffic restriction and purchase restriction and other relevant policies will promote the growth of demand for new energy vehicles from the consumer side and the manufacturing side. At the same time, from the technical side, new energy vehicles can meet the travel needs of most people, and the price continues to drop, which has a certain cost performance. It is expected to gradually replace the fuel vehicle market. It is suggested to find high-quality targets from power battery parts enterprises with extensive enterprise cooperation and leading technology.
Investment suggestions:
Overall, China's macro-economy has recovered steadily. China's automobile market is in the transition stage from the initial stage of popularization to the later stage of popularization. New car sales have gradually shifted from the incremental market to the stock market, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. At present, the technology of new energy vehicles is gradually mature, and intelligence gives new energy vehicles more premium space. Compared with fuel vehicles, the price of new energy vehicles has a certain cost performance, and the industry space has been greatly improved. There are no lack of structural investment opportunities in the industrial chain, maintaining the industry rating as "optimistic". Stock selection suggestions for the automotive industry: 1. Focus on the vehicle leader with continuous leading market share and perfect product matrix; 2. Focus on new energy vehicles and vehicle intelligence, start with the high-quality industrial chain, look for high-quality targets from top to bottom, and pay attention to Tesla industrial chain and lithium battery industrial chain. It is suggested to pay attention to: Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Car sales are lower than expected; Industrial policies have been significantly adjusted.
