Core view
The turnover of new houses this week increased compared with that of last week, and the turnover of second-hand houses decreased. The number of new houses sold in 47 cities this week was 48000, up 10.7% month on month and down 12.1% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 29000, an increase of 13.2% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by + 32.2%, + 9.4% and – 7.9% month on month respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 17.4%, – 0.3% and – 60.0% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 13000, down 3.4% month on month and 35.4% year-on-year; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 11000, down 7.3% month on month and 35.5% year-on-year; 1、 The growth rates of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities were – 1.7%, – 10.8%, – 2.6% month on month, and – 43.8%, – 26.5%, – 46.9% year-on-year respectively.
Compared with the previous week, the inventory of new houses increased, and the decontamination cycle decreased. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.041 million units, with a month on month increase of 7000 units, and the decontamination cycle was 11.7 months, with a month on month decrease of 0.1 months; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 571000 units, an increase of 3000 units month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 8.5 months, a decrease of 0.1 months month on month; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 270000 units, an increase of 4000 units month on month. The decontamination cycle was 8.1 months, with a month on month decrease of 0.1 months. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 209000 units, with a month on month decrease of 10000 units, with a decontamination cycle of 10.3 months, with a month on month decrease of 0.1 months. The inventory number of new houses in the third tier cities was 92000, with no significant change on a month on month basis. The de urbanization cycle was 6.8 months, with no significant change on a month on month basis.
The overall land market rose in volume and price compared with last week, and the land premium rate increased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 236, down 1.3% month on month and 77.0% year-on-year; The planned construction area of the land traded was 14.67 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 21.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 80.0%; The total land transaction price was 39.7 billion yuan, down 59.7% month on month and 75.4% year-on-year; The average floor price of land traded was 2703 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 48.8% and a year-on-year increase of 22.9%; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 6.04%, with a month on month increase of 158.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 57.6%.
Investment advice
This week, the Bureau of statistics released the real estate sales and investment data in November. The decline of core indicators narrowed and the low shock, and the shortage of funds in place eased. In addition, this week, the central bank released the single month housing loan data again. In November, the new personal housing loan was 401.3 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2 billion yuan compared with October. We believe that the favorable policies fell to the ground and the industry liquidity is gradually improving in the fourth quarter. However, it still takes time for the real estate entities to repair their market confidence. There is still downward pressure on the fundamentals of subsequent industries, and there is also pressure on the investment growth rate to continue to fall. Considering the economic growth and local financial pressure, there is still the possibility of further policy adjustment. From the perspective of sector investment, the real estate sector outperformed the market this week mainly because the policy statements continued to send positive signals. Ning Jizhen, director of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that the real estate industry is a pillar industry. The office of the central financial and Economic Commission said that the real estate industry has an important systematic impact on economic and financial stability and risk prevention, The senior management continued to positively guide the industry expectations. We believe that the end of this year and the beginning of next year may be a better investment time point, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the opportunities in the real estate sector.
We suggest to pay attention to: 1) development sectors: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Property sector: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life, xinchengyue service and Baolong business.
Risk statement
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
