The scale and investment direction of the advance approval of special bonds this week are determined, and the financial advance of next year is basically determined. The cement and early cycle sectors related to special bonds and finance, as well as the pipe sector related to the construction of water conservancy pipe network, which has been emphasized, have benefited more definitely.
The sector rose this week and outperformed the market: this week, Shenwan building materials index closed at 7873.5 points, up 0.9%, outperforming Wande a. The industry's average p / E ratio was 14.21 times, up 0.42 from last week.
The scale of special bonds is determined, and the financial pre infrastructure force is basically determined. The relevant sectors in the early cycle of infrastructure construction next year will benefit the most: the meeting announced that the scale of advance approval of special bonds is 1.46 trillion yuan, lower than 1.77 trillion yuan in 2021, higher than 2019 and 2020. However, the advance approval of special bonds in 2021 was issued in March, so the advance strength is not enough, and the scale of advance approval is determined earlier, And the meeting stressed the early use. It is expected that the issuance of special bonds will be basically completed in advance in the first quarter of next year, and the financial rhythm of next year will be ahead of schedule. In addition, the special bonds issued later in the second half of 2021 are expected to form a physical workload in the first half of next year, and the demand for infrastructure related building materials will be advanced next year. Benefit cement, waterproof, concrete and products, as well as emphasized pipe plate.
The completion of real estate rebounded in November and may still be resilient next year: from January to November, the newly started and completed areas of real estate were 1.83 billion square meters and 690 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 9.1% and 16.2% respectively; The newly started and completed areas in November were 160 million square meters and 115 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 21.0% and 15.4% respectively, and a month on month growth rate of 16.6% and 82.6% respectively. Cement output declined and glass was generally stable: in November, the national cement output was 200 million tons, down 18.0% year-on-year and 0.7% month on month compared with October. In November, the national output of flat glass was 83.59 million boxes, an increase of 0.1% and a decrease of 2.2% month on month. The output was generally stable. In 2021, the completion of real estate increased significantly. From September to October, the growth slowed down, and the prosperity of the glass industry rose and fell. According to the three-year lead in construction and completion, the scissors difference between construction and completion in the early stage has not been fully made up, and the completion data next year is still expected to be tenacious.
Key recommendation
This week, it is recommended to invest in relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is at a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader, etc. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise next year. It is recommended to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention.
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; Industry policy risk; Rising prices of raw materials; Epidemic disturbance.
