Policy: ensure reasonable demand and maintain market stability: in 2021, the confidence of China's real estate market was frustrated under the superposition of factors such as the continuous covid-19 epidemic, the decline of market sales, the default of individual large real estate enterprises and the tightening of bank credit. In order to stabilize market confidence, the relevant policies of the real estate industry are expected to be moderately loose in 2022, focusing on "housing without speculation", ensuring reasonable demand and promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
Downward investment in sales increased slightly: looking forward to 2022, it is expected that the sales area of commercial housing in China will decrease by 5.8% year-on-year, and the average sales price will remain stable; With the differentiation of population flow, transactions in the first tier and second tier cities such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Wuhan, Zhengzhou and Chengdu are expected to rise, while other second tier cities in the West and northeast are expected to hover at the bottom, and the overall high level in the third and fourth tier cities is expected to fall; The land acquisition area and new construction are expected to decline year-on-year. However, under the pressure of low inventory and local government guaranteed building supervision, the completion cycle of the industry may continue, and the construction investment still forms a support for the development investment. The annual real estate investment is expected to increase by 1.5%.
Maintain a tight balance of enterprise funds and accelerate the reshuffle: in 2022, the financing environment of real estate enterprises will be improved, but under the background of declining sales and overall tight bank development loans, enterprise funds will still maintain a tight balance; The industry will continue to shuffle, the capital and brand advantages of central enterprises and state-owned real estate enterprises will continue to be strengthened, and the market share will continue to increase; The market share of private housing enterprises will continue to decline due to capital constraints.
Give the industry a "optimistic" rating: in 2022, the industry policy will focus on "stability" and adhere to the main tone of "housing, housing and non speculation". Under the guarantee of marginal loose monetary policy and "guaranteed delivery" and other policies, the industry sales will generally show a stable downward trend; The shortage of enterprise funds may be alleviated, the industry concentration will continue to increase, and the leading market share of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is expected to continue to rise; The valuation of leading enterprises will continue to be repaired, driving the recovery of industry valuation as a whole.
Industry investment in 2022 will focus on two main lines: 1. Focus on industry leading companies with central and state-owned enterprise background: China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Vanke A; 2. Leading companies concerned about the property management sector: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: risk of macroeconomic policy change; Assumption error risk; Risk of industrial policy adjustment; Market sentiment risk caused by individual enterprise default.
