The rise of the construction sector outperformed the market this week. In November, infrastructure investment declined, the decline in real estate investment narrowed, the decline in construction and completion improved significantly, and real estate sales also decreased year-on-year. Pay attention to the issuance of special bonds next year and be optimistic about the development of infrastructure sector.
The overall rise of construction outperformed the market, and all segments Rose: this week, Shenwan construction index closed at 2256.7 points, up 4.2% month on week, outperforming the market. The industry's average price to book ratio was 0.9 times, which was basically flat compared with last week. All segments rose, of which industrial construction rose by 8.2%, the largest increase; Consulting sector 0.8%, the smallest increase.
Pay attention to the issuance of special bonds next year and be optimistic about the development of infrastructure sector: Recently, the Ministry of finance has issued a new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022 to all localities in advance, Compared with 2018 (0.81 trillion) and 2019 (1 trillion), it has increased significantly, and it has decreased compared with 2021 (1.77 trillion), but the issuance time is three months ahead of 2021. In 2022, special bonds will be mainly used in nine directions, such as transportation infrastructure, energy, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, and the issuance principle is "early, accurate and fast" That is, the preparation work should be early, the issuance time should be accurate, and the use of funds should be fast, so as to ensure that a considerable number of special bonds will be issued and used in the first quarter of next year, and the issuance progress should match the progress of fund use, so as to improve the efficiency of fund use. In 2021, a large proportion of special bonds will be issued in the second half of the year, and a considerable part of them will be used in the first quarter of 2022. Therefore, it is expected that the issuance scale of special bonds in the first quarter of next year will be considerable, which will form a strong support for the formation of physical workload at the beginning of next year and the scale of social finance in the current period. From the perspective of the direction of special debt investment, under the policy requirements of "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment", it is expected that the proportion of special debt investment in infrastructure may be significantly increased in 2022.
Infrastructure investment fell year-on-year, and the decline in real estate investment narrowed: in November, the fixed asset investment was 7.0 trillion, a decrease of 2.2%, of which the completed investment in infrastructure and real estate development was 1.8 trillion and 1.2 trillion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 7.3% and - 4.3% respectively. In November, real estate and infrastructure investment continued to decline year-on-year, but the year-on-year decline in real estate investment was smaller than that in October. In infrastructure construction, the investment in power, transportation and public utilities was 0.34 trillion yuan, 0.56 trillion yuan and 0.85 trillion yuan respectively. The year-on-year growth rates were - 1.4%, - 9.5% and - 8.1% respectively. The year-on-year decline in infrastructure investment in this month is larger than that in October, the year-on-year stability of power investment is basically maintained, and the year-on-year decline in transportation and public investment is obvious. However, the investment in public water conservancy increased significantly compared with October, with a growth rate of 14.3%.
The decline in construction and completion improved, and the land transaction was basically stable: in November, the planned land transaction area in 100 large and medium-sized cities totaled 110 million square meters, with a decrease of 0.2%, and the average transaction floor price was 2660 yuan / square meter. The construction, completion and sales areas were 160, 115 and 150 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 21.0%, 15.4% and - 14.0% respectively. In November, the land transaction area basically maintained stability year-on-year and increased month on month; Compared with the same period last year, the new construction data decreased, the completion data changed the decline in October, increased year-on-year, and increased significantly month on month. Recently, there has been a marginal easing trend in the policy of the real estate industry, and under the policy requirements of "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment", the new construction data may improve. By the end of the year, the completion stage of real estate enterprises is expected to drive the completion data to continue to improve.
Key recommendation
Key recommended infrastructure sector
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: manufacturing investment slowed down, the promotion of prefabricated buildings was less than expected, and macro liquidity tightened.
