Event: on December 20, the network anchor Weiya was pursued by the Hangzhou tax department for tax evasion of 643 million yuan, collected late fees and fined a total of 1.341 billion yuan. As of the evening, many accounts of Weiya had been closed. Tiktok officially launched the tiktok box of APP, the first independent electric business in December 16th.
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From the perspective of the intention of supervision, in recent years, the cooperation between super head and brand has deepened day by day, the growth rate is significantly faster than the industry market and has achieved excess profits. It has too strong influence on the brand. Behind the promotion of brand sales growth is the restriction on the brand. Under the background of common prosperity, the supervision may enter the market or intend to continue to adjust, and the ecology will be healthier in the future. According to the estimates of Alibaba's financial report, investor exchange information and phoenix.com, we expect that Weiya live Gmv accounts for more than 10% of Taobao's talent live broadcast, and its cooperation with head brands is deeper than that of ordinary anchors. At present, the national anti-monopoly attitude is becoming more and more clear. The tax evasion of head anchors such as Weiya has aroused high discussion and doubt among consumers in the short term, It may have an impact on the ecology of Taobao live broadcasting. In the future, other platforms may benefit from diversion. The traffic will continue to be decentralized, improve operational requirements, and the voice will gradually return to the brand.
Brand: from the controversy over the tiktok of L'OREAL and the super head anchor, the supervision of the country's direct broadcasting of the electricity supplier, and the attempt to improve the electricity supplier and live broadcast by independent APP, all of these indicate the trend of the channel's centralization. The demand for cosmetics exists for a long time. The distribution of excess profits at the supply end affects the ecological health of the industrial chain. Under the guidance of antitrust policies, brands, service providers and broadcasters may cooperate to build a more reasonable and transparent market mechanism in the future. The channel structure is facing changes, but no matter whether the super head traffic is dispersed to the middle waist anchor or other channels, the voice will be tilted to the brand side again, and the domestic brands with strong brand power that have formed a strong cognitive foundation in consumer psychology are expected to benefit.
Platform: the new development stage of the super head weakening live broadcast business, the live broadcast of the live tiktok is long-term or most beneficial. Jitter box is still in the early stage of launch, and the ecological value of live broadcast is tiktok, and the long-term trend is yet to be observed. Live broadcasting e-commerce has obvious advantages in compressing consumer decision-making links, reaching young consumers and transforming entertainment shopping scenes, with obvious traffic dividends and large room for improving operation efficiency. It will adjust live broadcasting to a healthier growth path, and move towards a new expansion mode in the next stage; The tiktok platform has formed a differentiated live broadcast ecosystem, where the algorithm of shaking voice distributes traffic and young, high-profile users, and gradually improved master's broadcasting ecology of shop sowing and head ratio is relatively small, which is more conducive to building a centralization of ecommerce ecology and having higher commercial realisation value or the most beneficial. Tiktok box interface design tiktok strong track categories of obvious traces, and there are many interfaces on the interface of the operation support is not perfect, in the long run, there are many types of comprehensive platform for Tmall Jingdong to transform the possibility of e-commerce, but still need to make breakthroughs in infrastructure, circulation efficiency, user ecology and other aspects, to be continued observation.
Service providers: under the guidance of national policies, the trend of platform traffic decentralization continues, and the role of single centralized channels such as super head live broadcasting is weakened, or more refined sales methods are promoted. In the future, the importance of the combination of multi-channel and multi platform will be improved, such as the comprehensive ability of the anchor combination of the store's self broadcast, which will improve the requirements and experience of the brand's comprehensive operation ability, and benefit the global e-commerce service providers who have been deeply cultivated and operated for many years.
Investment suggestion: we always believe that only brand strength is the core barrier of the brand. Under the trend of channel decentralization, we are optimistic about [domestic brands] with strong brand strength, and pay attention to brands that can quickly respond to market changes. At present, the role of single centralized channels such as super head live broadcasting is weakened. In the future, combined with the importance of multi-channel and multi platform combination, the requirements and experience for the brand's comprehensive operation ability are improved, which is conducive to the global e-commerce service provider [ Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) ] and the further decentralization of traffic for many years, and the new economic leader of red people [ Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) ] focusing on the marketing of red people at the waist and tail; The platform continues to pay attention to investment opportunities such as [meituan], [pinduoduo], [Alibaba] and [JD].
Risk tip: the slowdown of macroeconomic growth affects consumption intention; The online process is not as expected; Fierce competition affects profits, etc.
