Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) (300724)
Key investment points
Event: according to the official account of Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) WeChat public in December 14th, the company signed a PERC+ upgrading TOPCon's whole line transformation order with Sun Yun Fu, providing 5GW's PE-poly core equipment to customers, including PECVD-Poly equipment and new boron diffusion equipment, and expects to complete shipment in March next year. Recently, the company has won nearly 30GW of orders for TOPCON battery equipment.
With customer demand as the core, the leading position of photovoltaic cell equipment is stable: as the seller, the manufacturer of cell equipment does not directly determine the technical route of cell and the route choice of cell manufacturer. As an equipment manufacturer, the most important thing is to launch equipment that meets the market demand according to the market demand and be a good helper for battery manufacturers. Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) has not only become the only company in the world with the whole line supply capacity of TOPCON high-efficiency battery equipment, but also from the verified data, the company is in a leading position in the industry in terms of conversion efficiency and yield of TOPCON battery production.
TOPCON is expected to take the lead in large-scale production next year: at present, it is mainly selected by leading manufacturers in the industry, It mainly includes (1) Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) : on July 27, 2021, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) "commencement and foundation laying ceremony of the" intelligent factory project with annual output of 16GW high-efficiency single crystal battery "was grandly held. (2) Jingke energy: it is planned to land 10GW capacity in 2022 (3) Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) : it is planned to have 3gw + 15gw high-efficiency battery chip capacity. Although the process route has not been determined, it has publicly stated for many times that it will give priority to the Topcon route. (4) Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) : August 11, 2021, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599. SH) issued an announcement on issuing convertible corporate bonds to unspecified objects. Among the three Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery projects raised this time, "Yancheng annual output of 16GW high efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery project" and "annual output of 10GW high efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery project (Suqian phase II 5GW)" adopt perc process and reserve TOPCON interface; "Suqian (phase III) annual output of 8GW high efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) The "battery project" adopts TOPCON process.
Battery chip equipment is in the transition period, and the expansion of production is expected to accelerate next year: at present, due to the change of silicon chip size, the total proportion of 158.75mm and 166mm will reach 77.8% in 2020. 158.75mm is the most easily upgraded scheme of the existing battery production line, and 166mm is the largest scalable scheme of the existing battery production line, so it is the transition size in recent years. At present, it is mainly because the technology upgrading route of the battery has not been determined, and the major battery manufacturers maintain a more cautious attitude towards equipment updating. In the future, with the clarification of the route of the next generation battery, the battery is expected to usher in the wave of updating.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.290 billion yuan, 7.082 billion yuan and 9.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.80%, 33.87% and 32.7% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 830 million yuan, 1.16 billion yuan and 1.767 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 58.7%, 39.8% and 52.3%, maintaining the company's "buy-b" investment rating.
Risk tips: the risk of declining photovoltaic installation, the risk of intensified market competition, the cost reduction of hjt equipment is less than expected, the expansion of cell production is less than expected, and the risk of reduction of holdings by persons acting in concert.
