Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) (002624)
The company has obvious advantages in core categories, and magic tower is expected to bring category breakthrough and maintain the “buy” rating
The company’s MMORPG core category has obvious advantages. The launch of magic tower on December 16 is expected to help the company achieve category breakthrough and drive rapid performance growth. We maintain the profit forecast. It is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be RMB 1.479/2.08/2.931 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.76/1.24/1.51 respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 28.5/17.5/14.4 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The pre download of magic tower is hot, and it is expected to contribute considerable performance increment after it goes online
As of December 15, 2021, the number of reservations on the official website of magic tower has exceeded 15.88 million, taptap has exceeded 1.8 million, station B has exceeded 1 million, and the total number of reservations has exceeded 18 million. The popularity of the game continues to ferment. According to the company’s official microblog, “magic tower” opened the pre download at 18:00 on December 14. The pre download opened for 3 hours, and the download volume exceeded 1 million. The pre download opened for 6 hours and topped the IOS free list. The high popularity of the game has been verified. From a product perspective, the 3D open world game “magic tower” based on the illusory engine has been tested for four times, and the game modeling, art, content and playing depth have been greatly improved. Although there is still a gap compared with the head open world game, it is more competitive than most MMORPGs in the market. After it is officially launched, through continuous iteration, “Magic tower” is expected to open to the head and move closer to the world game. From the perspective of distribution, “magic tower” implements the distribution strategy of integrating quality and efficiency, expands the influence of the game by publishing theme songs, role PV, cooperative subway special trains, and strengthens the operation on vertical platforms such as taptap and station B, so as to achieve the closure and transformation of users. Combined with higher quality purchase advertising, it is conducive to further expand user coverage and achieve higher user conversion rate. Based on the reservation volume and the distribution strategy of integrating quality and efficiency of magic tower, we expect that the flow of magic tower in the first month is expected to exceed expectations, and the profit margin may be higher than that of dream Xinzhu Xian.
Breakthrough in product and strategic transformation, or form a new growth curve of the company
The success of magic tower is not just the success of a single game, but will help the company complete the breakthrough of category and strategic transformation, form a leading edge in the open world + field, rely on the technology and experience accumulated by magic tower to continuously iterate new and higher quality open world games, and form a new growth curve of the company. At the same time, open world games have initially possessed meta universe elements such as social interaction and immersion, or become the first landing scene of meta universe. The accumulation of R & D experience of open world + MMO may enable the company to take the lead in the development of meta universe games in the future.
Risk tip: the flow of classic games is declining, the performance of new games is less than expected, and the policy of the game industry has changed.
