Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169)
In November, domestic sales exceeded expectations, and Meiya returned to positive growth. It is optimistic that the performance will improve quarter by quarter in 2022
Domestic sales will maintain high growth in 2021m11. With the large volume of self-cleaning products, domestic sales are expected to continue high growth in 2022; The export of 2021m11 is superimposed well. It is expected that the overseas Shangxin and shipping will ease in 2022q1, and the export is expected to return to high growth; With the increase of revenue and the improvement of cost side, profitability is expected to be repaired. Considering the weak growth rate of overseas market in 2021q4, we lowered our profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.59/20.8/2.64 billion (the original value is RMB 1.67/22.5/2.83 billion), EPS will be RMB 23.9/31.2/39.6, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 33.3/25.5/20.1 times. Considering the expected quarterly improvement of performance in 2022, the “buy” rating will remain unchanged.
Domestic sales: M11, shuang12 and Q4 exceeded expectations, Ali channel doubled, and the new product volume trend has been set
According to the business consultant, Stone Ali channel sweeper Gmv continued to exceed expectations: 2021w49 + W50 (November 29 – December 12) Gmv + 142%; 2021m11 Gmv + 147%; as of December 12, 2021q4 accumulated Gmv + 140%. According to Aowei data, 2021m11 stone brand sweeper’s online market retail sales share was 16.6% (+ 5.2%) and its market share has increased significantly. We expect that the stone brand’s hot selling is mainly due to the strong product power of stone G10, the obvious promotion effect, the strong demand for self-cleaning products, and the high growth is expected to continue in 2022.
Export: M11 stone Meiya channel returns to positive growth, and the revenue growth may improve quarter by quarter
According to JS data, even under the influence of consumption return line and high base, shitoumeiya Gmv still improved month on month: Gmv of 2021m11 was + 3%, and the growth rate was improved month on month compared with 2021m10 (- 47%); 2021m1 accounted for 12.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.5pcts and a month on month increase of + 3.4pcts. Considering the low base of 2020m12, the Gmv growth rate of 2021m12 is expected to increase month on month. It is expected that 2022q1 will push new and broaden the price band, and the export growth rate may improve quarter by quarter.
Cost side: the rising trend of shipping and raw materials tends to ease, and the higher price point has dropped
According to China’s export container freight index, the freight index of 2021w49 US East Route / China Europe route is – 7.39% / – 6.82% respectively from the highest point. 2021w49 plastic city ABS price / comprehensive steel price / aluminum price / copper price index are -9.12% / – 16.37% / – 5.65% / – 6.41% respectively from the highest point, and the cost side is expected to be marginally improved.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies; Shortage of raw material supply; The risk of overseas epidemic has increased.
