Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (300751)
The issuance of 2.8 billion fixed value-added (hjt equipment) has been completed, and the important downstream hjt manufacturers Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) have been allocated; we look forward to another breakthrough
1) According to the announcement of the company, the fixed increase of 2.8 billion yuan has been successfully completed, and the issue price is 645 yuan / share, based on 94% of the average price in the 20 trading days before the issue pricing benchmark date (November 30, 2021).
2) The main participating institutions include: Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , ICBC Credit Suisse, Taikang assets, Boshi fund, Ruiyuan fund, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, etc. Among them, the important downstream hjt battery manufacturer Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) was allocated with a fixed increase of 100 million yuan. Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) previously announced that it plans to invest a total of 3 billion yuan to expand 5gwhjt Battery + components in the next five years. The project is expected to be carried out in three phases.
3) 2.8 billion fixed code heterojunction (hjt) equipment: after reaching the production capacity, it can achieve an annual output of 40 sets of PECVD, PVD and automation equipment, with an annual sales revenue of 6 billion and a net profit of 890 million. When the downstream hjt expansion is coming, strengthen the company’s capacity supply capacity.
Hjt equipment: the compound growth rate of the industry will exceed 80% in the next five years; The company has “first mover advantage” + “whole line supply capacity”
1) Market space of hjt equipment industry: it is expected that the market space of hjt equipment will exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 80% from 2020 to 2025. If the net interest rate remains 20% (8 billion net profit), 25 times PE will be given, and it is estimated that the reasonable total market value of hjt equipment industry is 200 billion yuan! We judge that the leading market share of the industry is expected to exceed 50%, and the market value of hjt equipment industry is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in the future.
2) The company is a leader in heterojunction (hjt) equipment, with “first mover advantage” + “whole line supply capacity”. It has realized the supply capacity of hjt whole line equipment (from 25% of perc equipment to 95% of hjt equipment). The company has launched the third generation of 600MW capacity heterojunction equipment, downstream with Tongwei, Anhui Huasheng, Atlas, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Aikang, REC and other customers have cooperated smoothly and have won GW orders. By September 2021, the company’s orders for hjt equipment had reached 1.8 billion (according to the company’s announcement).
Semiconductor equipment: won the order of semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment, and the company is the leader in domestic substitution
1) Order: according to the official account of the company, the semiconductor laser grooving equipment has been ordered by Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) and Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , and has been placed in trial order with five other companies. At present, the equipment has been delivered Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) and stable and reliable mass production has been realized at the client.
2) Technical strength: the company is the first manufacturer in China to supply semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment for Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) and other enterprises, mainly for low-k wafer slotting. In addition, the company’s semiconductor wafer laser modification cutting equipment has also been developed and will be verified in the near future. It is suitable for MEMS and other products with high sensitivity to particle.
3) Market space: at present, wafer cutting, thinning and other equipment are mainly monopolized by Japanese disco. The market segmentation of laser slotting and cutting equipment in China’s semiconductor packaging has a total market space of more than 2 billion yuan.
Profit forecast: optimistic about the company’s strategic position in the future development of photovoltaic and semiconductor industries and high growth in the next five years. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 680.8/1.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 52% / 46% / 48%, corresponding to PE of 125 / 85 / 58 times. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the propulsion speed of heterojunction battery does not meet the expectation; Photovoltaic demand is lower than expected; The downstream expansion was less than expected.
