Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) (002484)
The company has a full layout of three types of capacitors, and its revenue has ushered in rapid growth Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) . It is a leading enterprise of aluminum electrolytic capacitors in China. The company has a three-line layout of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, film capacitors and super capacitors, and extends the layout of upstream material electrode foil. In 2020, aluminum electrolytic capacitors accounted for 77.9% of the total revenue, followed by 7.7% of foil, 7.4% of thin film capacitors and 6.2% of supercapacitors.
Benefit from the high-profile of downstream industries such as photovoltaic and new energy vehicles and the demand growth brought by the overall improvement of market share of Chinese manufacturers. The operating revenue of 2021q3 company was 918 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.63%, close to the annual revenue of 2.635 billion yuan in 2020, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.32%.
In 2016, the company raised 1.2 billion yuan through non-public offering of shares, and plans to invest 400 million yuan and 800 million yuan respectively in the construction of thin-film capacitor and super capacitor projects, adding 10 high-voltage thin-film capacitor production lines, 3 electric double-layer capacitors and 5 lithium-ion capacitor production lines respectively. At present, there is a strong demand for thin film capacitors and super capacitors, which will open the ceiling of the company's growth.
The energy structure is switched, and the capacitor Market ushers in major development opportunities
Photovoltaic field: according to solarpower Europe's prediction, the new installed capacity in the global photovoltaic market will reach 346.7gw in 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 15% from 2021 to 2025. In 1GW photovoltaic, the value of aluminum electrolytic capacitance is about 10.5 million yuan and the value of thin film capacitance is about 4.5 million yuan. In the photovoltaic field, the market scale of aluminum electrolytic capacitors and thin film capacitors will be 1.943 billion yuan and 833 million yuan respectively in 2020. It is expected that they will reach 4.531 billion yuan and 1.942 billion yuan in 2025, with compound growth rates of 18.45% and 18.45% respectively.
In the field of new energy vehicles: according to evtank's prediction, the global new energy vehicle market sales will reach 40 million in 2030, and the penetration rate will reach about 50%. In a new energy vehicle, the value of aluminum electrolytic capacitor is about 200 yuan and the value of thin film capacitor is about 350 yuan. In 2020, the market scale of aluminum electrolytic capacitors and thin film capacitors in the field of new energy vehicles will be RMB 660 million and RMB 1159 million respectively. It is expected to reach RMB 4.5 billion and RMB 7.876 billion in 2025, with compound growth rates of 46.80% and 46.70% respectively.
Aluminum electrolytic capacitor: in 2020, the global aluminum electrolytic capacitor market reached 40.4 billion yuan in 2020. We predict that the global aluminum electrolytic capacitor market will reach 46.751 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 2.94% from 2020 to 2025, three times that of 2016-2019.
Thin film capacitors: the global market scale of thin film capacitors will increase from RMB 17.895 billion in 2020 to RMB 32.348 billion in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 12.95%.
Supercapacitors: according to QYResearch data, the global supercapacitor market will reach 19.7 billion yuan in 2020 and is expected to reach 58.3 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.5%.
The company's product layout is perfect and fully benefits from the large volume of downstream market
The company began to develop aluminum electrolytic capacitors in 1970, with core production technology of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, leading product quality, cost advantage and high-quality customer resources, and seizing high-quality downstream tracks such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic.
The company extends the industrial chain backward integration to realize controllable supply of raw materials. Electrode foil accounts for 60% - 70% of the production cost of aluminum electrolytic capacitor. In 2020, the company shipped 12.5 million square meters of chemical foil, with a value of 808.6 million yuan, an increase of 21.1% and 20.4% respectively year-on-year. The sales volume of corrosion foil was 9.28 million square meters, and the sales revenue was 266.45 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.4% and 27.0% respectively.
Since 2011, the company has planned the thin film capacitor business and established xinjianghai power; In 2016, it acquired 100% equity of YOUPU electronics; In 2018, Haimei Electronics was established in cooperation with Jimei. Relying on Jimei and Jianghai brands and channels, we have actively developed the vehicle thin film capacitor market, which has been tested and identified by many users and sold in batches. In 2020, the film capacitor will bring the company an operating revenue of 197 million yuan, accounting for 7% of the company's business.
The company vigorously promotes the industrialization of self-developed supercapacitors by means of technology transfer, acquisition of equity of upstream enterprises and fixed increase fund-raising. EDLC and LIC are arranged in two lines. At present, the product series is complete and has certain technical advantages. It has been applied in batch in the fields of wind power, rail transit, new energy passenger cars, industry and so on. In 2020, super capacitor will bring the company operating revenue of 161 million yuan. Wind power is the largest revenue source of the company's super capacitor products, accounting for about 54%. Customers include German SSB, Huadian and other enterprises.
Investment advice
Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) the comprehensive layout of three types of capacitor products benefits from the high prospect of photovoltaic and new energy industries, superimposed on the company's leading position in aluminum electrolytic capacitor and the continuous expansion of the company's future production capacity. It is expected that the company's aluminum electrolytic capacitor, thin film capacitor and super capacitor will grow rapidly in the future.
Aluminum electrolytic capacitor business: from 2021 to 2023, the operating revenue of aluminum electrolytic capacitor business was RMB 2.904 billion, RMB 3.655 billion and RMB 4.354 billion respectively, and the gross profit margin was 28%, 28.5% and 29% respectively. Considering the rise in the price of the company's products, the gross profit margin increased slightly.
Thin film capacitor business: from 2021 to 2023, the revenue of thin film capacitor is RMB 389 million, RMB 525 million and RMB 711 million, and the gross profit margin is 25%, 30% and 30% respectively.
Super capacitor business: from 2021 to 2023, the revenue of super capacitor is 244 million yuan, 366 million yuan and 549 million yuan, and the gross profit margin is 31%, 34% and 37% respectively.
Chemical foil business: from 2021 to 2023, the revenue of chemical foil is 223 million yuan, 245 million yuan and 269 million yuan, and the gross profit margin is 17%, 18% and 19% respectively.
To sum up, from 2021 to 2023, we predict that the company's operating revenue will be RMB 3.785 billion, RMB 4.818 billion and RMB 5.915 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 43.63%, 27.31% and 22.76%. From 2021 to 2023, the comprehensive gross profit margin is 27.45%, 28.73% and 29.57% respectively.
Considering the leading position of the company in aluminizing capacitor, especially that most of the company's products are used in photovoltaic, ups and other industrial control fields, the product barrier is high. Under the background of carbon neutralization and the increase of market share of Chinese manufacturers, photovoltaic and other new energy industries have greatly boosted demand, and the company should enjoy a valuation premium higher than that of the same industry. At the same time, superimposing the price rise trend of the company's products, we raised the company's profit forecast. From 2021 to 2023, the operating revenue increased from 3.507 billion yuan, 4.704 billion yuan and 5.892 billion yuan to 3.785 billion yuan, 4.818 billion yuan and 5.915 billion yuan; From 2021 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from 399 million yuan, 482 million yuan and 613 million yuan to 441 million yuan, 614 million yuan and 797 million yuan; From 2021 to 2023, EPS increased from 0.48 yuan, 0.58 yuan and 0.74 yuan to 0.53 yuan, 0.74 yuan and 0.97 yuan; Corresponding to the closing price of RMB 24.69 on December 15, 2021, PE is 46x, 33x and 26x respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk statement
PV installed capacity is less than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price rise of upstream raw materials increases the cost of the company; Power restriction affects the commencement of the company; The epidemic situation is repeated, affecting the supply of raw materials.
