Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) (300019)
The company is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of silicone sealant and other new materials. As a leading enterprise in China's silicone sealant industry, it continues to increase its volume in the field of industrial adhesive represented by photovoltaic adhesive; In addition, actively embrace the new energy industry chain, sign a long-term strategic cooperation framework with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and lay out silicon carbon cathode materials.
Silicone sealant continues to be used in large quantities, and the downstream photovoltaic demand is determined. The company is mainly engaged in silicone building adhesive and industrial adhesive. In the field of construction glue, with good brand awareness and influence, the company continued to improve its market share, with a compound growth rate of more than 20%, continued to maintain growth toughness exceeding market expectations, and stabilized its leading position in industry segmentation; In the field of industrial glue, benefiting from the high economic development of the new energy industry, the number of major customers and procurement share of the company's Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic glue have increased rapidly, and the performance has increased significantly. Determination of downstream PV installation demand: each GW of PV installation corresponds to about 1000 tons of industrial glue. According to the calculation of 300gw installation, it is expected that the PV glue demand will reach 300000-400000 tons by 2025, with a corresponding market scale of nearly 10 billion. In addition, the company's silane coupling agent products are the key additives for the production of EVA film, and the import substitution of electronic and electrical glue and automobile glue has accelerated the steady improvement of the company's performance of industrial glue. In terms of production capacity, the company's 100000 tons of high-end sealant intelligent manufacturing raised and invested projects have reached the production capacity one after another. The 40000 tons of phase I have been put into operation, and the production capacity has doubled after it is fully reached.
Raw material prices are down, and profitability is expected to improve significantly. The price of raw materials is an important factor affecting the company's profits, of which the cost of 107 silicone rubber accounts for about 60%. Its price continued to rise in the first three quarters, putting great pressure on the company's cost, resulting in a decline in the company's gross profit margin. At the current time point, the price of raw materials has fallen sharply, which is expected to have a positive impact on the profitability of the company. With the continuous launch of new silicone production capacity next year, the price center is expected to fall back to a reasonable range, and the profitability of the company is expected to be greatly improved.
Layout silicon carbon cathode materials and embrace the new energy industry chain. Taking advantage of its own advantages in silicon material industry, the company actively arranges carbon silicon cathode materials, and plans to build a 10000 t / a silicon carbon cathode material for lithium battery, a 40000 t / a special adhesive production base, and a lithium battery material R & D center. At present, among all kinds of negative electrode materials, the theoretical capacity of traditional negative electrode graphite material is close to 372mah / g, while the theoretical capacity of silicon carbon negative electrode material can reach 4200mah / g, which is much higher than other materials and has good fast charging performance. It is an ideal alternative material in the future. In addition, the company signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to deeply embrace the new energy industry chain.
The performance inflection point has reached, and the "buy" rating is given for the first time. This year, the company's profits were affected by the decline in profit margin caused by the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials. Q4 with the decline of raw material prices, the profit margin is expected to improve. At the same time, new production capacity begins to release, and the performance inflection point has reached; In the long run, the company's layout in the field of new energy is worth looking forward to. In the future, the implementation of silicon carbon cathode material project is expected to boost the company's valuation system, sign a long-term strategic cooperation agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , deeply embrace the new energy industry chain, and determine the future growth space. We expect that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 242 / 412 / 578 million in 21-23 years, with eps0.01 billion 62 / 1.05/1.48, corresponding to pe35 1 / 20.7 / 14.7 times, with "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuates and product demand does not meet expectations
