Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) (688017)
Short term industry supply and demand gap and market share increase under capacity expansion
Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and cooperation Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) provide a basic market for harmonic reducer. According to IFR’s forecast of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sales, we calculate that the global demand for Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) harmonic reducer CAGR = 8.3% from 2021 to 2024. Although hamenaco, Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) and other major global harmonic reducer enterprises have large-scale production expansion plans in recent two years, according to our calculation, there is still a supply gap of 43.6/27.5/12.1/75000 units in the global harmonic reducer Market from 2021 to 2024. At the same time, we believe that under the catalysis of covid-19 epidemic, the trend of “machine replacement” is expected to accelerate, that is, there is a possibility that the demand related to Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) is higher than expected. Therefore, the harmonic reducer industry will continue to be in short supply in the short term, and the market share of Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) is expected to increase rapidly under the capacity expansion.
New products + new applications broaden the long-term boundary
For 40-60% of the non Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) applications of hamenaco harmonic reducer, Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) is still in the Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) field at the downstream, and is gradually expanding the non Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) applications, mainly focusing on Mechatronics and electro-hydraulic servo. ① Mechatronics: it mainly integrates servo system, harmonic reducer, sensor and other parts into modules to improve the comprehensive performance of products. At present, the company mainly focuses on the downstream of CNC machine tools. We predict that the market scale of harmonic reducer for CNC machine tools in China from 2021 to 2025 will be CAGR = 45%, which will add more increment to the harmonic reducer Market.
② Electro hydraulic servo: electro hydraulic servo system is an automatic control equipment with liquid as power transmission medium. It has the characteristics of fast response speed, large power mass ratio and large load resistance stiffness. It is the most ideal driving equipment for quadruped Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . High load capacity is a necessary condition for the commercialization of quadruped Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . In the future, with the gradual opening of industrialization of quadruped Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , electro-hydraulic servo can be expected in the future.
Looking forward to the long-term space, the market value is expected to reach 35.5-42.6 billion yuan in 2025
We calculate the medium and long-term performance and market value of Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) :
Performance: with the continuous improvement of production capacity and the proportion of non Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) business, we expect that the company’s revenue is expected to increase from 433 million yuan to 1.65 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 190 million yuan to 710 million yuan, with a compound growth rate of nearly 40%.
Market value: the valuation level of hammernaco, the global leader since 2013, has been restored. We found that, excluding exceptions, hammernaco’s PE basically fluctuated between 30-60 times. We give Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) 50-60 times the target PE in 2025, and it is expected that the target market value in 2025 is expected to reach 35.5-42.6 billion yuan.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the harmonic reducer market continues to be in short supply and the company’s capacity expansion exceeds our expectations, we raised the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 184 / 267 / 366 million yuan to 190 / 301 / 419 million yuan in 2021-2023. The current market value corresponds to 111 / 71 / 51 times of PE, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the development of downstream industries is less than expected, the industry competition intensifies, and the expansion of new products is less than expected
