Guangzhou Kdt Machinery Co.Ltd(002833) (002833)
Core view
Event: the company won the construction land use right of 64400 square meters of land in Zengcheng economic and Technological Development Zone with 51.06 million yuan.
Land expansion and promote the production expansion plan. The company won the construction land use right of 64400 square meters of land in Zengcheng economic and Technological Development Zone with 51.06 million yuan. The land will be used to improve the capacity of edge banding machine and increase the production scale of frame and core parts, so as to optimize the manufacturing process of edge banding machine and other production lines, ensure the independent supply capacity of key parts, and gradually reduce the demands of entrusted processing of core parts.
The policy inflection point has arrived, and the company benefits from furniture subsidies to the countryside and affordable housing construction. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission encouraged rural residents to upgrade their consumption and implement subsidies for furniture and home decoration to the countryside. At the same time, the Political Bureau meeting pointed out that "we should promote the construction of affordable housing and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers". Furniture subsidies to the countryside and the promotion of affordable housing construction are good for second-line or secondary first-line furniture enterprises with cost performance. Such furniture equipment generally uses Chinese panel furniture equipment such as Hongya and Nanxing. In addition, supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers is expected to alleviate the cash flow problem of furniture enterprises and drive the recovery of capital expenditure of furniture enterprises.
Capacity improvement + high-end products, the company seizes market share at home and abroad. The company is promoting the construction of new production capacity. Shunde Longjiang 160000 square meter production base is expected to be completed in the second half of 2023. In three years, the company's total production capacity will meet the revenue of at least 5 billion yuan. In recent years, the company's products have gradually become high-end, and the gap with the global leader Germany Haomai has gradually narrowed. From 2016 to 2018, almost all the mainstream equipment of the head furniture company were foreign brands. At present, the company's products have entered most Chinese head furniture brands and built intelligent production lines for several of them. The price of the company's products is only 1 / 3-1 / 2 of that of German Haomai. In the future, the gradual production of the company's new production capacity will help the company continue to improve its market share, open up the space of overseas market and gradually replace foreign brands. At present, the company's global market share is about 7%, and its revenue is only 1 / 4 of that of Haomai in Germany, so there is still much room for growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating. We predict that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.93 yuan, 2.30 yuan and 3.08 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 17.4 times, 14.6 times and 10.9 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the leading edge of technology is weakened or less than expected, and the real estate sales and completed area are weakened.
