Suntak Technology Co.Ltd(002815) (002815)
The turning point of 2021q3 performance was clear, the company ushered in a dilemma reversal and gave a "buy" rating
The company has gradually stepped out of the niche market of small and medium-sized PCBs, adopted the big customer strategy and actively expanded the Chinese market. In the process of transformation, the company has overcome the two major problems of changing its business strategy from technology driven to cost driven and direct selling customer reserve. The company's performance ushered in a single quarter reversal. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter of 2021q3 reached 210 million yuan, yoy + 101.6%, which is the first quarter of positive growth since 2020q3. We estimate that from 2021 to 2023, the company's operating revenue will be 6.21/75.4/8.63 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 6.5/8.5/1.04 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 0.74/0.97/1.18 yuan, and the PE will be 20.7/15.7/12.9 times. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Rich technology accumulation, upstart in China's high-end digital communication PCB field
Relying on the experience of small and medium-sized high-end customized orders, the company has gradually benchmarked its process capability with leading manufacturers. In terms of the highest layers, completed size and thickness of PCB, it is close to the head manufacturer. In the early stage, the company has insufficient experience in mass production of high-end products. At present, the company has obtained orders for high-end supercomputing, server and base station backplane to improve the process yield. The development opportunity of PCB in data communication field will be gradually switched from communication equipment board to network equipment board and computer / server PCB. According to prismark's prediction, the industry compound growth rate of server / storage PCB will reach 8.5% from 2020 to 2025, exceeding the industry average growth rate of 5.8%, and the industry scale will increase from US $5.89 billion in 2020 to US $8.86 billion. With Intel PCIe 4 0 server platform is launched one after another, and the iteration of server products is accelerated. It is expected to introduce new suppliers, and the company may get incremental market share.
The company's PCB product layout is comprehensive, benefiting from the domestic substitution trend of IC packaging substrate
Chip upgrade promotes PCB products to enter the high-density stage. HDI and packaging substrate are the development trend in the future. According to prismark's prediction, the compound annual growth rates of HDI and packaging substrate from 2020 to 2025 are 6.7% and 9.7% respectively, exceeding the compound growth rate of output value of PCB industry by 5.8%. In the past, IC carriers were monopolized by Japanese and Taiwan funded manufacturers. With the acceleration of the localization process of the downstream semiconductor industry, it is expected to promote the matching of upstream IC carriers. The company holds 55% equity of pronovi, or will benefit from the wave of localization substitution of IC packaging substrates. In 2021h1, pronovi's operating revenue was 250 million yuan, net profit was 67.976 million yuan, and net interest rate reached 27.2%, far exceeding 12.9% in 2020.
Risk tip: the price increase of raw materials erodes the cost, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the yield of high multi-layer PCB is less than expected.
